Kingston, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

490
FXUS64 KOUN 081118
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 553 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
   evening, primarily across western Oklahoma.
- Mild weather continues today with above-normal temperatures
   likely by mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday night)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Weak isentropic ascent associated with a 30-knot 925 mb low-level
jet may result in scattered showers and thunderstorms toward
sunrise across northwest Oklahoma. Severe weather is not expected
with any activity that develops this morning. If convection
develops, it may persist across northwest Oklahoma/near the
Kansas border through much of the morning.
By late this afternoon, daytime heating along and ahead of a
diffuse dryline is forecast to be sufficient to remove any
convective inhibition for robust, surface-based convection across
southwest Kansas, the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles, and northwest
Oklahoma.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and
move toward the south within the northwest flow aloft. Instability
(~1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE) and shear (effective bulk shear ~35
knots) will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Convective-allowing models indicate these thunderstorms may grow
into one or two clusters that will move southward across western
Oklahoma before weakening late evening with the loss of daytime
heating. The convection may make it as far south as western north
Texas as it weakens given a modest low-level jet. Damaging wind
gusts and hail will both be possible given the storm mode (i.e.,
clusters) and magnitude of vertical shear.
Mahale
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Dry weather is expected during the day Tuesday. The eastern
fringe of an expanding low-level thermal ridge across western U.S.
will result in warmer weather Tuesday afternoon with highs in the
mid 80s to low 90s deg F.
There will be another chance of showers/storms Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning across northwest Oklahoma as remnant convection
from the north and a modest low-level jet may allow some
convection to sustain itself. Severe weather is not expected with
this activity.
By Wednesday, the mid-level ridge and associated low-level thermal
ridge will move farther eastward into the Plains. The mid-level
ridge is forecast to amplify and increase in magnitude. This will
result in warmer weather toward the middle and latter part of the
week with above-normal temperatures becoming more likely.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The mid-level ridge is forecast to remain entrenched across the
Southern Plains through at least Saturday, which will likely
result in continued above-normal temperatures and minimal rain
chances.
The probabilistic temperature forecast (derived from an ensemble
of bias-corrected models) indicates a very high chance of above-
normal temperatures given even the 10th percentile (the colder
end of guidance) has slightly above-normal temperatures Thursday
through Saturday. High temperatures will likely range from the
upper 80s to mid 90s deg F.
By late Saturday into Sunday, the mid-level ridge may weaken as a
trough lifts into the Plains. As a result, there is at least a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms the second half of the
weekend.
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Stratus coming off the Texas Panhandle may lower ceilings in
western Oklahoma which could degrade terminals KWWR & KCSM to an
MVFR category from 12Z-15Z where TEMPOs are in place. In addition
some nearby elevated convection coming off the Oklahoma Panhandle
could pass over terminal KWWR also reducing visibilities in the
MVFR category between 12Z-15Z as well. A second round of
convection coming off the higher plains may also impact terminal
KWWR between 22Z-04Z although probabilities are only 30% with a
PROB30 in that taf. Otherwise, all other terminals should remain
in a VFR category through the entire forecast period. Surface
winds will be increasing out of the south by 15Z-16Z at 10-15
kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  62  85  65 /   0  10   0   0
Hobart OK         86  64  91  66 /  10  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  85  63  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           83  61  89  63 /  30  40   0  10
Ponca City OK     82  60  86  62 /  20  20  10   0
Durant OK         82  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion