Kinston, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

759
FXUS62 KMHX 211809
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
209 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend over Eastern NC from the
northeast for the next few days, with weak front and coastal
troughing offshore. High pressure dominates through mid week
before another low pressure system moves in from the west late
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Sun...Latest analysis shows 1028mb high pressure
centered over New England extending into the Carolinas, with
weak front and coastal troughing offshore. Southern stream
shortwave aloft approaches from the SW, gradually turning the
zonal flow more SWerly while cutoff low slides toward Great
Lakes. Most of the area will remain dry overnight, with only
isolated shower chances along the immediate coast. Expecting
cloud coverage to increase again overnight with low level
stratus developing as nocturnal inversion sets up as well as
upper level clouds drifting in from the Gulf. Patchy inland fog
may develop late. Lows will fall into the low 60s inland and
upper 60s to 70 deg for the beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sun...High pressure will continue to extend over
the area from the NE with weak front and coastal troughing
offshore. Most of the area will remain dry, with only isolated
showers possible along the immediate coast. Low level thickness
values and NE flow will keep temps near normal, with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 12:30 AM Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Warming trend through mid-week
- Pattern becomes more unsettled starting Wednesday
An upper ridge will build into the area to start the period. At the
surface, high pressure will spread south across the eastern CONUS
with a stalled front offshore. Increasing heights will start a
warming trend that will last through mid-week. By Wednesday,
highs will be near 90 across the coastal plain and near 80 at
the beaches. Outside of some isolated seabreeze showers near the
coast Monday night and Tuesday, the rest of the area should
remain dry.
The upper level pattern will become more interesting by mid-week as
a trough digs across the central plains and becomes cutoff east of
the Rockies. The eventual strength and movement of this feature will
greatly impact future surface features, but guidance agrees on it
being slow to move across the plains and then lingering over the
Ohio River Valley through late week before moving on towards the
eastern CONUS next weekend. This broad troughing across the eastern
CONUS will support daily shower and thunderstorm chances across ENC
through the end of the period. As of now, highest PoPs are on Friday
and Saturday (40-50%).
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through MONDAY/...
As of 2 PM Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF
sites through the rest of the afternoon and evening today, with
some MVFR ceilings lingering across the northern OBX through the
rest of the afternoon. Guidance is then in good agreement
regarding another round of low stratus bringing MVFR to IFR
ceilings to all terminals tonight. Dewpoints will creep up
overnight within the moist layer under the shallow frontal
inversion after the cessation of diurnal mixing. High confidence
that this will lead to another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings
building southwestward from the NOBX to TAF sites beginning
either side of midnight local time. Similar to this morning, may
see conditions drop to LIFR with ceilings of 300-500 ft and
mist/fog bringing visibilities of 2-5 miles, with the greatest
chances for inland terminals. Ceilings will then lift to VFR
through the morning tomorrow across ENC, with the potential for
MVFR ceilings lingering across the NOBX through the day.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 1 AM Sunday...Daytime VFR conditions should persist
through early next week, although chances for late night/early
morning fog and low stratus will be possible. The pattern
becomes more unsettled by mid-week with greater PoPs bringing
increased chances for sub- VFR conditions through the rest of
the period.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 2 PM Sunday...Current observations show winds of 10-20
kts with gusts of 20-30 kts across the coastal waters and
Pamlico Sound, with waves having built to 4-6 ft through the
overnight hours. Backdoor cold front has sunk farther southward
with high pressure wedging into the mid-Atlantic. This will
allow the gradient to remain pinched across ENC, with winds of
10-20 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts expected to continue through
tonight. Gradient will relax tomorrow, with winds lowering to
10-15 kts and gusts to 20 kts, but with waves building to 5-7 ft
tonight, some 6-footers are expected to linger through at least
Monday night. No changes to the ongoing SCAs other than some
minor adjustments to end times. Otherwise, expect ongoing
showers along the coastal trough to largely remain outside the
20 nm zone but can`t rule out an isolated shower or two creeping
in closer to the coast through tomorrow.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 150 AM Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Elevated seas and longer period swells from distant Gabrielle
NE winds will veer to the SE Tuesday- Wednesday. Seas will
begin to subside Monday night with waves expected to be 4-5 ft
at 11-12 seconds by Tuesday evening and 3-4 ft by Wednesday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...OJC/ZC
MARINE...OJC/ZC

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion