368 FXUS63 KBIS 261947 AFDBISArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 247 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue through the middle of next week, with mostly dry conditions expected through this weekend. Low chances of rain return by the middle of next week.
- Breezy conditions through the weekend.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Currently a shortwave trough is moving east through Montana. Upstream from the shortwave, a quasi-zonal pattern is moving on shore. Embedded on the trough axis is a cold front. At the surface the cold front is located from southwest North Dakota, to north central North Dakota, and moving southeast. On the northern fringe of the front light returns on radar are present, mostly along and north of the International Border. As the front passes, winds have been turning to the northwest and gusting up to 35mph. Once the front passes winds will remain northwest but calm to around 20mph. After sunset, winds should calm. Lows tonight in the post frontal cooling, will be cooler in the 40s. Saturday will be breezy again as the pressure gradient tightens between a high pressure moving through South Dakota overnight, and a low sitting in Wyoming.
Through the weekend the Northern Plains will be in a broad ridging pattern with an upper high over the Central Plains. So the weather will continue to be above average warm, and quiet weather through Monday. After Monday the upper level flow switches to the south or southwest through the rest of next week. This will lead to chances for rain starting Tuesday. So far, there is little to no chances for thunderstorms with this, but high temperatures will stay in the 70s and 80s. The NBM has a large temperature range for late next week, but the trend is a slight cooling signal down to the 60s.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR through period. A cold front is currently moving through the state, producing northwest winds gusting to 30kts. Winds will calm again after sunset.
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.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith
NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion