Knife Falls, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

321
FXUS63 KDLH 261734
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A slight chance for showers tonight along the International
  Border.
- The dry and warm pattern continues for Sunday into much of
  the coming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
High pressure was centered just northwest of Thunder Bay early this
afternoon and extended across the Northland and much of the Upper
Midwest. Skies were clear across the region with some hints of smoke
aloft moving through per satellite imagery. Highs this afternoon
will be slightly cooler than yesterday reaching into the 60s to
middle 70s. A weak cold front will move through the Northland
tonight and bring an increase in cloud cover. This will prevent a
repeat of this morning when the clear skies led to excellent
radiational cooling conditions over north-central Minnesota
resulting in colder lows than expected. This front will be dry over
much of the Northland, but a few isolated showers cannot be ruled
out along the International Border. Dry air near the surface will
need to be overcome for anything to reach the ground, further
limiting rainfall chances to only around 25% at most. Most of the
forcing with this system remains near the low well to our north, but
there are hints of a couple hundred J/kg depending on what model you
look at, so an isolated rumble of thunder in any shower cannot be
completely ruled out.
Winds turn northwesterly tonight with the frontal passage and become
breezy with gusts to 20 to 25 mph through about midday Saturday. Hi-
res models are picking up on a weak North Shore wind event, most
notable the HiRes-ARW. While this seems slightly overdone given the
lack of appreciable CAA behind the front, pressure differences and
weak frontogenesis may still generate these katabatic winds. Probably
not to the 35+ knots the ARW is showing, but still a bit higher than
forecast.
High pressure will then remain in place for much of the coming week
with a pseudo omega block setting up. With ridging overhead, this
will lead to temperatures pushing above normal for the week with
next to no chances for precipitation. There may be some slightly
better chances towards the latter half of the week, but this will
depend on where the high sets up to our east and how strong it is
with shortwaves riding the ridge axis. This could keep activity more
over the Northern Plains or slightly into the Northland. Overall,
the dry pattern currently looks to hold as we head into early
October.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Clear
skies this afternoon will give way to scattered VFR skies
tonight as a weak cold front moves through. An isolated shower
cannot be ruled out at INL, but should one move over the
terminal it should not lead to any restrictions. Ceilings depart
Saturday morning the wake of the cold front. Winds will be the
main concern for the period with east-sotuheast winds this
afternoon becoming northwesterly behind the front with gusts to
15 to 20 knots that will linger into Saturday. Some LLWS is also
expected in the vicinity of the front overnight as well.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Northeasterly winds this afternoon may gust to around 20 knots, but
should remain below advisory level. A dry cold front moves through
tonight into Saturday morning and will turn winds northwesterly at 5
to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots along the North Shore
during the morning. These katabatic winds may trend stronger and an
advisory may be needed for a period Saturday morning. Winds will
turn southwesterly midday at 5 to 15 knots. Once winds diminish
Saturday evening, they will remain under 10 knots for the most part
through Sunday from the southwest, although some gusts to around 20
knots will be possible around Grand Portage Sunday afternoon.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion