238 FXUS61 KCLE 282333 AFDCLEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 733 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Strong Canadian high pressure builds south over the Great Lakes region through the middle of the week. The high will shift towards the Northeast region by the end of the week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather continues as high pressure remains overhead through the forecast period. Mostly sunny skies and above normal high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected each afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible tonight and Monday night with lows in the mid to upper 50s under a clear sky.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Strong Canadian high pressure will move overhead early this week leading to continued dry weather. Warm on Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s before a cooler airmass enters the region. High temperatures return to near-normal values in the lower 70s, upper 60s across Northwest Pennsylvania, for Wednesday. Low temperatures Tuesday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s will dip into the mid 40s Wednesday night. Can`t rule out some spots touching the upper 30s Wednesday night under clear skies, though frost potential remains low given elevated wind speeds. NBM probabilities for minimum temperatures below 40 degrees range between 60-70% across extreme eastern portions of Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The surface high will gradually push east towards the Northeast region with dry weather persisting through the end of the week. Southerly return flow on the backside of the high will allow for a gradual warming trend to occur through the end of the week. Highs in the lower 70s Wednesday will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Saturday. Lows will settle in the low to mid 50s each night through the long term.
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.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... VFR is observed areawide and is largely expected to continue through the TAF period. Patchy fog will be possible across parts of the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning which may produce non-VFR visibility, though confidence is low at this point. Best chance for fog will be at KYNG where there is a 20-30% of IFR visibility; this is lower than previous model runs.
Light and variable winds are expected tonight. A light lake breeze may bring north winds around 6-9 knots Monday afternoon.
Outlook...Patchy fog possible early Monday morning and Tuesday morning. VFR otherwise.
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.MARINE... Winds will tend to be light and variable, though tending to favor a light onshore flow today and tomorrow with a lake breeze, and light offshore flow tonight. High pressure gradually moves from northern Ontario on Tuesday to southern Quebec and New England towards the end of the week. This will result in northeast flow developing on Tuesday, strengthening to 20-25 knots Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A small craft advisory is very likely for the entire southern nearshore of Lake Erie during this time frame.
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.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.
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SYNOPSIS...13 NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Saunders
NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion