Lancaster, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

367
FXUS63 KARX 030754
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
254 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near or Record Warmth Expected through Saturday Night
- Maybe Some Elevated Fire Weather Concerns This Weekend
- Rain Chances Return from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Night
- Near Normal Temperatures Return from Tuesday into Thursday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Near or Record Warmth Expected through Saturday Night
A strong 500 mb ridge of high pressure will be located over the
Upper Mississippi River Valley through Saturday night. 925 mb
temperatures will range from 22 to 24C. Mixing these
temperatures to the surface will result in high temperatures in
the mid- and upper 80s. There maybe even a few lower 90s. These
temperatures are around 20 degrees warmer than normal. These
temperatures will be warm enough that some record high
temperatures and even warm low temperature records could be tied
or broken. Both La Crosse and Rochester have only reached or
exceeded 90 degrees on 4 days in October.
Lowered Afternoon Dew Points for the Weekend
Soundings continue to show that we will likely mix up to 850 mb
on both Saturday and Sunday. A warm nose between 850 and 800 mb
will likely limit us from mixing any higher than that. This will
result in our dew points likely falling into the mid- and upper
50s on Saturday and lower to mid-50s on Sunday. As typical, the
NBM is likely too high with the surface dew points, so populated
the grids with the 10th NBM percentile.
With the southerly winds increasing into the 15 to 25 mph range
and drying vegetation mainly west of the Mississippi River,
there could be the potential for elevated fire weather concerns.
The one limiting factor is that despite lowering the dew
points, relative humidities look to stay in the 30s and 40s.
Rain Chances Return from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Night
A slow moving cold front will move slowly southeast through the
area from Sunday afternoon through Monday Night. There should be
enough convergence for showers and maybe a few storms (surface-
based CAPES up to 250 J/kg). With the better 0-3 and 0-6 km
shear in the wake of the front, not anticipating any organized
severe weather at this time.
Near Normal Temperatures Return from Tuesday into Thursday
In the wake of the front, near normal temperatures will return
from Tuesday into Thursday. High temperatures will be primarily
in the 60s and low temperatures will range from the mid-30s to
mid-40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A shortwave trough will round the ridge to our north today. This
will bring some mid and high clouds to the TAFs overnight and on
Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Here are daily record highs/warm lows for Friday and Saturday
with the current forecasted high and lows. (Record (Year) /
Forecast)
October 3 Record Highs:
    La Crosse: 91 (1997)/ 88
    Rochester: 93(1997)/ 86
October 4 Record Highs:
    La Crosse:  88 (2005)/ 87
    Rochester:  84 (2005)/ 85
October 4 Warm Record Lows:
    La Crosse: 72 (2005)/ 66
    Rochester: 71 (2005)/ 67
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Boyne
CLIMATE...Falkinham

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion