Lasker, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

324
FXUS61 KAKQ 280750
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
350 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier day is expected as the slow moving cold front
finally pushes offshore this afternoon. Tropical Depression
Nine is expected to become a hurricane as it tracks north off
the Southeast coast through Tuesday. While the center of the low
is not expected to be near the local area, rain from the system
is expected to overspread the local area Monday into Tuesday.
However, uncertainity remains high regarding rainfall totals
given uncertainties regarding the exact track of the system.
High pressure builds in by late week with cooler and drier
weather likely.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
- Low level stratus and patchy fog will continue through this
morning.
- Clouds will clear in the afternoon with drier conditions.
Early morning analysis shows a weak upper low centered over much of
the area with more SW flow aloft. At the surface the slow moving
cold front has finally pushed through most of the area and is now
stalled along the coast. Behind the front some low level moisture
remains in place allowing for low level stratus to form and engulf
the entire CWA. Temperatures as 2am are in the middle 60s inland and
upper 60s and lower 70s along the coast and across the southeast.
Through the rest of the morning some patchy fog could develop across
the area and the low level stratus will continue. This will put a
halt on temperatures lowering much and by sunrise temperatures will
continue to be in the middle 60s inland and upper 60s low 70s along
the coast. Through the day the upper low will move further south but
will remain over the east coast. At the surface, the slow moving
cold front will continue to push further off the coast. With the
front pushing further east this will allow for any showers to
develop off the coast. Recent guidance does continue to show drier
solutions and less coverage of any shower behind the front. Chances
of thunder have been taken out of the forecast as the air behind the
front will be stable. The low level stratus will start to erode
further west this afternoon but the majority of the area will remain
cloudy with little breaks in the clouds. Temperatures will not warm
much and have been knocked down a degree or two due to the stratus
deck. Highs this afternoon will be in the middle 70s across much of
the area and upper 70s along the coast and to the far west. For
tonight most if not all of the area will remain dry with the best
chance of showers across NE NC closer to the front. Lows tonight
will be in the low 60s inland and middle to upper 60s across the SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Chances of rain will increase Monday through Tuesday as outer rain
bands from TD-9 (expected to become  Hurricane Imelda) overspread
the region.
- Breezy conditions are expected Tuesday along the coast.
By Monday the upper low will have weakened substantially. At the
surface the stalled frontal passage will be will continue to linger
off the SE coast. Further south two tropical systems will continue
to nudge north but remain out of our area. TD- 9 is still progged to
become Hurricane Imelda by late Monday off the Florida coast. Across
our are there could be some showers associated with this tropical
system and could bring some locally heavy rain fall at times . Pops
in the afternoon increase to 25 to 40% along and N of I-64 and 40 to
60% south. The chances for heavier rain fall is expected to be
across the far southern portion of the area. Overall around .25"
is expected across the south with these rain band with some possible
higher amounts nearing .5". WPC has maintained a marginal ERO for
the south for locally  heavy flooding. Highs for Monday will be in
the middle lower to middle 70s. By Tuesday, TD-9 is expected to
stall further south off the coast of SC/GA/FL before eventually
turning out to sea. Across our area high pressure will be building in
out of the north assisting in keeping the chances of rain further
across the south. Additional rain amounts across the south will be
between .25" and .5" in the early morning hours of Tuesday. Then by
Tuesday afternoon and early evening rain chances start to lower as
TD-9 moves out to sea. WPC has maintained a marginal ERO for the
south for locally  heavy flooding. In addition to the rain chances
Tuesday, breezy wind conditions are expected along the coast with
wind gusts between 25 to 35mph. Highs for Tuesday will be in the low
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Drier and cooler weather is expected by the end of the week.
-Breezy NE winds will continue with gusts nearing 40mph by
Wednesday.
Cooler and drier air will advect into the area by the middle to late
next week and a strong high pressure moves over New England and the
Mid-Atlantic. The pressure gradient on Wednesday from the high
pressure to the north and the two tropical systems to the east and
south will be quite strong along the coast. This will allow for
breezy conditions lasting from Wednesday to Thursday. Wind gusts
along the coast will be 30 to 35mph with some isolated gusts upwards
of 40mph and 20 to 25 MPH inland. these conditions will be very
similar through Thursday. Then by Friday the pressure gradient will
weaken and the winds will decrease. Temperatures will overall be
pleasant through the middle and late week. Highs will be in the low
70s Wednesday and upper 60s Thursday and Friday. Lows temperatures
will plunge down into the middle to lower 50s Wednesday and upper
40s to low 50s Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 139 AM EDT Sunday...
A mix of IFR and LIFR conditions have been noted across all
terminals this morning. CIGS is the main concern this morning
as low level clouds are continuing to move in across all
terminals. These conditions will last through the 6z TAF
period. Some patchy fog may develop later this morning that
could cause brief Mvfr to IFR VIS restrictions. Winds tonight
will remain light and variable. After sunrise CIGS should begin
to lift to MVFR across all terminals. Some showers are possible
across the far SE and should not affect the terminals. Winds
will pick up out of the NE to 5 to 10 kt by mid to late morning.
Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs likely linger across the terminals Sun.
There is a low chance for a few showers across SE VA/NE NC Sun.
Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible through the week with
rain chances increasing Mon.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Sub-SCA conditions through the weekend.
- Deteriorating conditions and building NE winds are likely next
  week, with the strongest winds expected Wednesday/Thursday.
- Follow the latest information from the National Hurricane
  Center regarding the progress of Humberto and Tropical
  Depression 9.
Latest analysis indicates 1012mb sfc low pressure just offshore
of the Delmarva coast. A weak sfc boundary extends SSW just
offshore of the SE VA/NE NC coast. Winds are NW 10-15kt, with
some gusts to around 20 kt over the bay south of New Point
Comfort. Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves 1- 2 ft.
Noting a modest surge in the Ches Bay, as high pressure builds
west of the waters. This surge allows some gusts to ~20 kt to
persist through mid-morning, but still not anticipating
predominate SCA conditions. Otherwise, weak high pressure
continues to build in today and tonight. Winds turn to the NNE
and diminish to 5-10 kt (highest lower bay and central/southern
waters. Waves 1-2 ft, seas remain 2-3 ft.
Attention then turns to the progression of Tropical Depression
9, possibly soon to be Tropical Cyclone Imelda. Emerging
consensus amongst deterministic models and multi-model
ensembles regarding the handling of this system, reflected well
in the latest National Hurricane Center forecast track for the
system, shows the system offshore of the east coast of Florida
Monday, moving to a position ~200 miles off the SE Georgia/ N FL
coast by Tuesday morning. As noted previously, this slower
track allows for greater influence on TD9 from powerful
Hurricane Humberto, a category 5 storm farther out in the
central Atlantic early this morning. The latest track on Humberto
shows the system increasing speed NW and remaining well offshore.
Over the past few model cycles, the trend toward Humberto
pulling TD9 farther and more abruptly offshore has steadily
gained greater support, and that trend has continued with the
00z/28 cycle. However, we must caution this is still not yet a
high confidence forecast, and continued vigilance with these
systems is strongly advised.
In any scenario, Humberto will send increasingly strong long-
period swell toward the local waters for much of the first half
of the week ahead. This will translate to building seas late
tonight into Monday, with that trend to continue through
midweek. The tightening pressure gradient between the tropical
systems to the SE and strong 1032+mb sfc high pressure pushing
SE across Quebec will lock in a prolonged period of elevated NE
winds this week. These gusty winds will be in addition to the
developing high surf across our area due to the sharpening
gradient and the incoming strong E-SE swell.
NE winds pick up to 15-20kt Monday and Monday night with seas
increasing AOA 4-5ft. SCAs likely to be needed for tomorrow
through late week. Winds and seas increase further Tuesday into
Wednesday, with increasing potential for a period of gale force
gusts early Wed morning, becoming more likely Wed afternoon into
early Thursday. The strongest winds are expected over the
southern coastal zones south of Cape Charles, including the
adjacent Currituck Sound and the lower Chesapeake Bay. Seas are
expected to build to 10-13 ft, with waves in the Bay 3-5 ft N
and 5-6 ft S (6-8 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Winds gradually
diminish by Friday, but headlines for elevated seas are expected
to continue into next weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...
Tidal departures remain minimal with no coastal flooding expected
through Tuesday morning. After that, expect anomalies to
steadily increase, as strong high pressure slowly drops SE
across Quebec, while Humberto and Tropical Depression 9 (or its
remnant), move farther offshore. The tightening pressure
gradient will bring a prolonged period of strong onshore flow,
and a high likelihood of at least minor coastal flooding late
Wed through Friday (with the possibility for significant coastal
flooding later Wed and Thu).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HET/RMM
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...LKB/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion