Lava Canyon Rapids, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

495
FXUS65 KFGZ 260005
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
505 PM MST Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon will become more widespread tonight. Expect scattered
showers and storms to continue through Sunday. Some stronger storms
may contain large hail, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding. Conditions look to dry out early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A cutoff Pacific low will slowly move into Southern
California this evening, then will slow down and arrive over Yuma by
Saturday morning. The low hangs around through the weekend, exiting
to the north and east on Monday.
Strong moisture advection continues across the Desert Southwest this
afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect the
showers and thunderstorms to continue through tonight, with a
gradual push to the east through the night. Some storms will be
strong and may become severe with the potential for large hail,
damaging winds, very heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, and
even the possibility for a tornado. Shear is fairly high and
combined with the cold air aloft and moderate instability, we have
the potential for isolated severe storms to occur through tonight
and again on Friday. The best shear overnight is generally off
across western zones while the best chances for precipitation will
remain off across eastern zones. It may be a story of poor timing
and placement which may end up keeping some of the stronger,
potentially rotating, storms at bay. Either way, be prepared for
potentially severe weather through at least Friday, and possibly
into the weekend. For the most part, storm motions are between 15-25
mph which should help to limit flash flooding. However, some storms
may train/back build and with some rainfall rates around 3-5"/hour,
could be a recipe for flash flooding. Stay weather aware through this
weekend and heed all weather warnings.
Conditions dry out behind the departing low and only some lingering
moisture across our western edges may allow for an isolated shower
or storm. Temperatures will also start to warm up once again.
&&
.AVIATION...Friday 26/00Z through Saturday 27/00Z...VFR to MVFR
conditions in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA until
03-06Z Friday. Some TSRA could reach severe level with strong
localized gusty winds and large hail. Isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA possible during the overnight period. SHRA/TSRA coverage
increases again after 18Z Friday. Winds S-SE 10kts daytime, light
and variable overnight.
OUTLOOK...Saturday 27/00Z through Monday 29/00Z...VFR to MVFR
conditions in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
possible between 18Z and 06Z each day, with more isolated coverage
during the overnight periods. Some of the TSRA could be severe
with strong localized gusty winds. Winds SW-SE 10kts daytime,
light and variable overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms this evening will become more widespread tonight
through Saturday. Some storms may become severe. Outside of storms,
expect southerly winds at 5-15 mph.
Sunday through Tuesday...Periods of showers and thunderstorms
continue through Sunday, with coverage becoming isolated on Monday
and Tuesday. Daytime southerly winds at 5-15 mph each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Meola
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion