Leedey, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

408
FXUS64 KOUN 210342
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1029 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Scattered showers and storms are likely through the overnight
   hours. A few strong to severe storms possible.
- Severe storms are again possible on Sunday and Monday.
- Above-normal temperatures through the weekend before
   potentially cooling down to near-normal by the middle of next
   week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A shortwave mid-level trough will swing across the southern
Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop starting this afternoon across the western
third of the area. Storms will be developing in an environment
characterized by DCAPE of around 1200 J/kg, in addition to
sufficient instability. Stronger storms are expected to develop
within this environment and will be capable of producing strong to
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Storms generally will move to
the east through the evening.
Additional development is possible overnight across much of the
area as a low-level jet increases after sunset. Marginally severe
storms are again possible overnight across much of the area.
Flooding concerns may develop should storms train over the same
area this afternoon through the overnight hours.
Bunker
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Showers and storms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across
portions of the area. The aforementioned trough will shift to the
east and northwest flow will move in from the west. This flow will
help to continue showers and storms into the afternoon,
decreasing from west to east during the evening.
Hot temperatures are expected Monday as an upper ridge builds
over the southern Plains. Many locations will get into the low
90s, while locations to the southwest will approach 100 F.
Increasing southerly surface flow will transport upper 60s to low
70s dewpoints northward across much of the area. This moisture
will support a very unstable atmosphere by the afternoon. Lack of
large scale ascent during the day is likely to preclude storms
from developing at least in the afternoon. A mid-level wave begins
to move towards the southern Rockies later in the evening, which
will foster storm initiation across the lee of the Rockies in
southwestern Kansas. This development will congeal into a line
and shift towards our area. As this line moves into and across the
area, damaging winds will be the primary hazard.
Bunker
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Ensemble guidance continues to point towards a positively tilted
trough axis by the middle of next week. Thus, increased rain and
storm chances will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday, followed
by much cooler (near or slightly below-average) temperatures in the
70s to 80s by Wednesday and through the remainder of the week. The
largest uncertainty remains to be the strength, timing and position
of this trough axis which will play a significant role in how long
daily rain and storm chances continue through next week and how long
the cooler airmass will be in place.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop late this
evening, especially across western & southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas. With a modest low-level jet and weak
shortwave trough approaching, additional development should
continue which will mainly impact terminal sites at CSM/LAW/SPS.
Although elevated instability is weak, increasing effective shear
may result in a few stronger storms. It`s possible storms will
linger through Sunday morning before moving south and east of the
area. Additional storms are possible Sunday afternoon, especially
across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Overall, VFR
conditions are expected, but some of the stronger storms will
lower visibility to below 3 miles.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  82  67  90 /  50  60  40  20
Hobart OK         66  89  66  95 /  60  50  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  91  70  97 /  50  50  20  10
Gage OK           62  85  62  89 /  50  30  10  10
Ponca City OK     66  82  65  88 /  60  50  50  20
Durant OK         70  90  71  92 /  10  20  30  30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...06

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion