Leeper, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

043
FXUS61 KPBZ 191113
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
713 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain warm and mostly-dry weather into
the weekend. Rain chances return to the forecast next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues
- Isolated valley fog possible this morning
---------------------------------------------------------------
With a lot of dry air in the lower levels relative to recent
days, most locations should remain fog free outside of a few
isolated spots along area rivers this morning looking at
current dewpoint depressions. Overnight lows overall are
expected to be near seasonable levels. A weak frontal boundary
currently over the southern Great Lakes will sag south over the
region today, but with limited moisture, latest ensemble
guidance shows single digit probabilities for any
precipitation, so have left out any mention in the forecast for
now over the course of the day. Overnight we should see normal
or just above normal temperatures again with the potential of
river valley fog development again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues into the weekend.
- A weak front brings slightly cooler temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------------
Friday night will feature normal or just above normal
temperatures again with the potential of fog development, mainly
in the river valleys. Ensembles continue to show the high
center positioned to the north into the Great Lakes shifting
southeast into the New England area. As this happens, a weak
shortwave will drop into the Upper OH Valley later on Saturday.
Latest NBM guidance shows single digit precip chances at this
time.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Slight uptick in rain chances next week
- Temperatures remain above normal Monday through Wednesday,
  albeit with a slight downward trend
------------------------------------------------------------------
The mentioned shortwave further infiltrates the region by
Saturday night into Sunday as additional moisture arrives into
the region. With a weak boundary in place, the winds begin to
shift to a more southern flow. This will ensure a better chance
of measurable precipitation. Thus, the NBM comes up with >20%
probs of 0.01 or more by Sunday evening.
Ensembles/cluster analysis continue to show a slower trend with
the progress of the next upstream trough, with the axis
progressing from the Upper Mississippi Valley to just the
Western/Central Great Lakes by Tuesday. Some solutions even
suggest the development of a cutoff upper low somewhere over the
eastern Plains. This trend, in turn, results in just a slow
increase to minimal PoPs, with slight chance values northwest of
Pittsburgh Sunday night/Monday, before eventually overspreading
the area Tuesday/Wednesday. QPF expectations are not high. The
NBM shows a 40-60 percent chance of 0.10" or more during the
72-hour period ending at 12Z Thursday. With increasing rainfall
deficits, we will need healthier precipitation totals to put a
better dent in the developing drought.
Overall, above-normal temperatures continue to be the
expectation through the middle of next week. Still, with the
slowly falling heights and increasing cloud cover potential, a
modest downward trend is the most likely scenario. The 25th-75th
percentile spreads do increase through this period, indicating
increasing uncertainty in the ultimate values. This is
reasonable given the range of potential solutions regarding the
speed/positioning of the upstream trough.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest satellite imagery shows stratus layer between 0.6-2kft
associated with a weak, mostly dry cold front attempting to
creep toward FKL/DUJ. Though confidence is low it holds (versus
scattering as mixing commences), brief tempos were added between
13z-15z at each site to cover potential and based on current
forward speed.
Otherwise, weak ridging and building high pressure will again
foster VFR with a few to scattered diurnal cu today. Wind will
generally be out of the NW, with potential for a few sites to
gust to ~15kts, before veering NE overnight while remaining
light.
.OUTLOOK....
VFR is favored through Saturday with continued high pressure.
The approach of an upper-level trough may foster low-probability
rain/sprinkles Sunday and Monday, favoring locations northwest of
Pittsburgh. Those that observe any precipitation could see MVFR
ceilings, but VFR is likely to persist across most of the area.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...Cermak/88
AVIATION...Frazier

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion