Lelia Lake, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

963
FXUS64 KAMA 171833
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
133 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Slight chance of severe thunderstorms is present Wednesday
  afternoon and evening with highest chances seen in the
  Northwestern Panhandles.
- High chances for rain and thunderstorms are forecasted for
  Wednesday and Thursday with the highest chances for rain on
  Wednesday evening into the night.
- Slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are expected
  Thursday due to cloud cover and a cold frontal passage.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
As of early this afternoon, latest radar and satellite was seeing
a remnant outflow boundary slowly moving across the Southeastern
Panhandles. This boundary has been allowing for weak showers and
thunderstorms to develop off of it and move into Eastern
Panhandles. Meanwhile directly behind it, satellite and surface
observations are already seeing the cold frontal boundary drift
south into the Central Panhandles. This early progression of the
front will need to be watch as many of the CAMs expect this
boundary to stall on a very evident pocket of dry air present in
the 700mb theta E and act as a lifting mechanism for our first
round of storms. This round of showers and thunderstorms, while
not the main show for today, does still have the potential to
produce strong to severe thunderstorms with the primary threat
being wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Moving into this evening, most CAMs see a decent vorticity max
push into the Northern Panhandles. The combination of this max and
topography to our west will be the main drivers of our evening
round of showers and thunderstorms. As it stands this round of
storms is looking to be our best chances for severe thunderstorms
with latest CAMs seeing potential for discrete supercells to
develop. Impact wise, present CAM runs have seen MLCAPE range from
around 1500 to 2000 J/kg with MUCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg.
These values would be enough to see large hail present for the day
with decent effective bilk wind shear capable of keeping cells
maintained. What has been concerning is that quite a few model
soundings have depicted decent directional wind shear in the lower
levels. While the latest HRRR has back off on the speed in this
profile, it is still enough of a sign that the threat of tornadoes
cant be ruled out. Moving into this evening and overnight hours
has many of the CAMs seeing this activity congeal under the
compression of the front ahead of it and a pocket of dry air
behind it. This pocket will then force activity to push south and
east during the overnight period, while generating heavy rainfall
for the Panhandles. It is during this time that rainfall could add
up to the point that localized flooding may become a concern by
Thursday morning. Activity does look to wane as we progress
through Thursday, but 10 to 30% chance do remain clear through the
evening. Otherwise, look for cooler temperatures to be present
with much of the Panhandles in the 70s to low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
With model agreement seeing the exit of the closed low to our far
north Thursday, the present northwesterly flow does begin to
lessen for the Panhandles. However, the combination of a new ridge
starting to build over the Western Untied State and a series of
short-waves does keep the potential for active weather present
clear through the weekend. At this time activity for Friday is on
the lower end with most guidance only seeing a 10 to 20% chance of
actually seeing showers or thunderstorms. Meanwhile, model are
seeing a much better short-wave move through Saturday that may be
able to interact with the still present moisture better,
especially in the east where current guidance is giving closer to
a 30% chance that afternoon. Otherwise, these chances do start to
wane as we move into the new week, with present model agreement
seeing the ridge start to strengthen. As for temperatures, look
for them to slightly rebound from the cold front with temperatures
return to the mid-80s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
As of this afternoon, latest satellite was watching the frontal
boundary slowly move into Central Panhandles. This boundary is
expected to stall and be our lifting mechanism for our first
round of storms later this afternoon, which has a potential to
impact KAMA through this evening. This will be follow by a
secondary round of showers and thunderstorms out of the northwest
later this evening that will have much better chances of
impacting all three terminals. KDHT is expected to have the best
chances of seeing impacts fist with worst case scenario seeing
large hail and damaging wind up to 70 mph. If the latest CAM runs
are correct, then this activity is expected to slowly congeal
during the nighttime hours before heading south towards KAMA.
While the threat of hail will start to diminish by then, these
storms will likely still be capable of producing heavy rainfall
that will reduce visibility. This activity is likely to be
present through the overnight, but confidence in it staying over
the terminals is low at this time.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion