Lenexa, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

967
FXUS63 KEAX 281806
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
106 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and seasonally warm conditions persist through most of
  this week. High temperatures ranging in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
More of the same dry and seasonably warm conditions as the mid to
upper level pattern remains somewhat stagnant. The mid to upper
level ridge, that has been the main weather driver for the past few
days,  slowly tracks to the east placing the axis over our area. As
a surface high over the Great Lakes Region shifts to the east, our
winds will reorient to the south/southeast through the evening. This
afternoon, highs will range in the mid to upper 80s keeping us
roughly 8-12 degrees above seasonal averages.
For the start of the work-week, the mid to upper level ridge shifts
slightly to the east as a dynamic trough descends along the Pacific
Coast. Simultaneously, this trough amplifies the ridge and nudges a
stagnant trough out of the Four Corners Region. This trough will
weaken as it rejoins the flow. The track of the weakened trough
becomes more nebulous between the NAM and GFS. However, both models
agree that this trough will have very limited impact on our area
given the influence of mid to upper level ridge. This seems to be
the consensus among most hi-res models as well, however the NAMNST
does show a weak signal for light precip for the northwestern corner
of MO. This is highly unlikely given our dry environment and will
likely just amount to a few extra clouds. Speaking to temperatures,
highs remain in the mid to upper 80s for the first half of next week.
For the second half of next week, the pattern becomes more
disorganized, increasing uncertainty as Tropical Depression Nine
potentially makes landfall on the southeastern edge of the ridge
late this week. Concurrently, the previously mentioned trough over
the Pacific Coast traverses through the western U.S. helping to
nudge the pattern eastward. Even though the mid to upper level ridge
axis shifts to the east of the area, high temperatures will remain
around the low to mid 80s for most of the week due to persistent
southerly winds and no significant decrease in mid-level heights.
Low end precipitation chances return late this week with the mid to
upper level trough approaching from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. Winds
will remain mostly light ranging up to 4-7 kts as they
gradually reorient to a more southerly direction by late
tomorrow morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion