Leon, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

303
FXUS63 KFGF 230010
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
710 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy dense fog is possible across parts of the area,
  especially northwest Minnesota, Tuesday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Not much to say other than it`s very benign weather out there.
Visible satellite imagery indicates smoke aloft over western and
central Dakotas, which will slowly migrate eastward tomorrow,
adding some milky-haze to the sky. Smoke is not expected at the
surface.
Weak surface flow amid surface col and subsidence aloft as well
as relatively moist topsoil continue to lend support in
thinking efficient radiational cooling will occur overnight,
aiding in the development of shallow surface fog. Guidance still
favors locations closer to central/north-central MN holding
relatively best chance for seeing dense fog due to proximity to
surface high as well as slightly better low level moisture.
Persistent fog development within this synoptic feature also
lends confidence in this area holding relatively higher chance
of seeing dense fog. Additionally, winds may be slightly
increased in North Dakota as a weak surface trough approaches
the region, mitigating fog development.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure continues to work southward into the Northern
Plains this afternoon as an H5 upper low moves east across the Great
Lakes Region. In eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and west
central Minnesota, look for generally quiet weather with light winds
and warmer than average temperatures. Precipitation chances are
minimal today through the weekend; however, patchy fog is possible
Tuesday morning. Winds shift to the north-northwest by mid morning
Tuesday, maintaining a relatively dry pattern. Slightly drier air
moves into the area Friday into Saturday, with minimal precipitation
chances continuing.
...Patchy Dense Fog Possible Tue Morning...
High pressure, light winds, and clear skies prevail tonight into
Tuesday morning. Patchy dense fog is possible during the late
overnight hours, especially in northwest Minnesota, where radiative
conditions are slightly more favorable.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions and light winds under 9kt are forecast throughout
the TAF period, with the exception of fog between 09Z-14Z.
Included BR and visibility reductions within the KTVF and KBJI
TAFs to annotate this potential as these locations hold
relatively higher chances at seeing fog than other locations
(30% chance for fog); however, there is still a small chance
(10%) for fog to impact other sites like KGFK and KFAR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...CJ

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion