Liberty, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

274
FXUS63 KEAX 061920
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
220 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gradual Warm Up To Upper 70s and Lower 80s Next Few Days
- Light Rain Chances Monday Night into Tuesday West of Hwy. 63
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
H5 closed-low system over Hudson Bay and its associated trough axis
into the Great Lakes Region continues to shift eastward with ridge
axis present over the Rockies. This maintains mid-level
northwesterly flow across the central CONUS and continues to allow
the surface anticyclone to spread from the Plains to the eastern
Great Lakes Region. This will keep conditions dry for the remainder
of the day Saturday and Sunday. With ridge axis shifting eastward,
will see subtle H5 height rises over the next 48 hours coincident
with 850mb WAA. This will allow temperatures to climb back into the
lower 70s in northern Missouri today, with mid 70s central and
southward, and for Sunday upper 70s to lower 80s. Will need to watch
position of the jet stream to see if any smoke fills the skies, but
right now high resolution model guidance is not depicting much
transport directly into the region.
Monday, mid-level troughing arrives along the western CONUS and
attempts to amplify the ridge over the Central CONUS, while also
ejecting a vort max that is progged to traverse the ridge axis and
provide lift across the Central Plains to lower Missouri River
Valley. This is set to arrive in our western counties late Monday
into early Tuesday, and may bring some shower activity. QPF amounts
for this activity is light, as the better surface based forcing
remains over western Kansas. Generally speaking areas west of Hwy.
63 are looking at around 0.10 to 0.25 inches of QPF, with most
ensemble suites depicting high probabilities for at least 0.10
inches of but steadily drop off as the threshold increases beyond
0.25 inches. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible with activity
Monday into Tuesday if enough instability can be realized. Current
deterministic solutions though are depicting fairly minimal wind
shear, suggesting any convection will struggle and presents only a
minimal severe threat if any at all.
Through the middle of next week troughing over the western CONUS is
progged to dig southward before closing off, allowing H5 ridge axis
to amplify across much of the Central CONUS. Thermal ridge axis
slides far enough eastward to provide persistent WAA through the
middle of next week, sending temperatures in the mid 80s across most
of the forecast area. There are some hints that lower 90s may be
reached in some spots depending on how amplified the ridge axis
becomes. Based on current guidance, this would have to exceed the
75th percentile, but based on the pattern is not totally out of the
question, and climatologically would fit a second summer pattern
this region experiences after a late August or early September cool
down. Overall pattern looks dry through most of next week, with some
low-end potential for rain early next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
High pressure will keep conditions quiet today. May see some
cumulus develop with bases around 7 to 9 kft. Winds generally
west-northwest between 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion