Lily, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

430
FXUS63 KABR 230806
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
306 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog is possible over portions of west central MN this
morning.
- Periods of smoke aloft return through Wednesday for locations west
of the James River. Near surface smoke is not anticipated at this
time.
- An extended period of dry and mild conditions look to set in
across the region into the upcoming weekend, with high temperatures
about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
As of 08z, there are some patchy areas of fog developing over west
central MN, which will likely continue until a little after sunrise.
Additionally, some elevated smoke is moving in over central SD and
will spread east through the evening and overnight over areas west
of the James River before moving south. This smoke is forecast to
remain aloft and not drop down near the surface.
There is currently a positivily-tilted upper-level trough that
stretches over SD while a ridge is starting to build over western SD.
This trough is moving southeastward today and Wednesday, and should
move out of SD by Wednesday afternoon. While this is happening in the
upper-levels, the surface has mostly light northwest to northerly
flow over the state with some higher pressure moving over central
and northeastern SD. This higher pressure will help to keep rain out
of central and eastern SD for today and Wednesday. During these
days, temperatures will stay relatively similar, with highs in the
mid to upper 70s and lows in the low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The extended period looks to remain quiet with a lack of any
significant/impactful weather. GEFS/GEPS/ENS all in good agreement
in showing 850mb temps in the teens to around +20C at times through
the period (except Saturday). As far as temps are concerned, it
appears readings will be above normal with highs generally in the
70s and 80s. In general, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal through
the period. Models don`t really show any signs of cold air
intrusions through the 7-day period, so no threat for frost/freeze
conditions anytime soon either it appears.
As for precipitation, well, there really is none in the forecast
through the entire extended period as models don`t really show any
disturbances of significance moving through the region. There is a
cold front passage Friday afternoon/evening, with some mid-level
shortwave energy moving through, but for right now all this looks to
come through dry. Highs Saturday do cool back about 5 to 10 degrees
compared to Friday`s highs, but we`re still talking 70s for temps
here. NBM probability for measurable precip through the entire
extended period is ~5% or less.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...06

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion