Lipscomb, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

562
FXUS64 KAMA 162345
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
645 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Low chances for thunderstorms this afternoon through early this
  evening across the Panhandles. Very low chance Storms are able
  to become strong to severe with gusty winds and hail.
- High chances for rain and thunderstorms are forecasted for
  Wednesday and Thursday with the highest chances for rain on
  Wednesday evening into the night.
- Slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are expected
  Thursday due to cloud cover and a cold frontal passage.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Today and Wednesday will see a weather system first approach and
then pass across the southern and mid plains including the
panhandles.
Today while the weather system is approaching the panhandles will
find itself under the confluent sector of an upper level jet
streak. This feature will provide upper level subsidence that will
help to counter the low to mid level environmental conditions.
In the eastern panhandles the low to mid levels will be unstable with
1000-3000 J/kg present. Even with opposing upper levels the shear
amount of energy available will cause thunderstorms to form
during the afternoon hours. It is useful to compare this to Monday
where similar conditions produced scattered thunderstorms with a
few becoming strong to severe. Compared to Monday, today has less
in the way of opposing upper level forces so it stands to reason
we will have even more thunderstorm activity and severe threat. If
strong to severe thunderstorms form then the main threats will be
from hail and damaging downburst winds. The most likely time for
the storms to kick off will be during the mid afternoon hours for
the eastern panhandles. The western panhandles will be somewhat
different in that the environmental energy is less around
1000-1500 J/Kg. This may not prove enough to allow for
thunderstorms to form while the upper level are opposing
development. The most likely scenario is that rain showers and
thunderstorms form in NM and CO first and these then push into the
western panhandles with the arrival of the weather system. While
the energy may be less it can still allow for strong to severe
thunderstorms development with wind and hail.
This linear feature of rain showers and thunderstorms should then
slowly drift eastward into the central panhandles for the
overnight hours into Wednesday morning. In doing so it should
gradually weaken but not fully stop raining and thundering through
the early to mid morning hours. It is more likely for this
overnight activity to occur for the north central panhandles but
it could extend towards the southern panhandles. The lack of any
heating from the sun makes it very unlikely that any severe
weather will occur for the overnight and early morning hours.
Wednesday the weather system fully moves across the panhandles
making it the most active weather day of this event. The overnight
linear feature of rain showers and thunderstorms has a moderate to
high chance of strengthening during the late morning hours with
the onset of daytime heating. This feature will continue its
eastward push departing the panhandles for OK proper around or
prior to noon. While that occurs further rain showers and
thunderstorms will have a high chance of developing in the central
panhandles. There is a moderate chance that this round of
thunderstorms will be forming along a small embedded wave within
the weather system which could cause it to also take on a liner
shape. If this occurs then it to will push eastward departing to
OK proper during the afternoon hours. If not then this round of
activity will just blend in with the next round of rain showers
and thunderstorms that form across the whole of the panhandles
during the late afternoon to early evening hours. This round of
rain showers and thunderstorms will have a high chance of
lingering across the panhandles through the rest of the day
through the overnight into Thursday morning with the passage of a
weak cold front. The environment through Wednesday will not be
able to generate a large amount of instability due to the repeated
rounds of rain and thunderstorms. This will most likely see CAPE
values of around 500 to 1000 J/Kg through much of Wednesday. What
is of more interest is the high environmental shear of 30 kt to 60
kt that will be present with the weather system. This will allow
even weaker storms to become better organized and robust even with
the lesser instability. To further compound this there may be a
small layer of surface drier air that will setup a small scale
inverted V environment that is favorable for downburst winds. All
this put together means that the environment will be supportive of
at least a low chance for severe weather through damaging wind
gusts. Hail at this juncture seems to be a lesser threat as the
updraft strength may be limited by the lower environmental energy.
To further compound the threats for Wednesday some tropical
moisture from the Pacific will be moved across the panhandles by
the weather system. This will create a very moist environment
which will allow for the thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall.
This will generally follow the stronger the thunderstorm the
heavier the rain it will be capable of producing. This will pose a
localized flood across the panhandles either through wet strong
thunderstorms and/or multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms
through Wednesday. The impacts from any flooding will be dependent
heavily on where the flooding occurs as a town/city will be worse
off than open rangeland. Since this will be long duration event
flooding, if it occurs, may persist during the overnight hours
making it even harder to detect.
For a silver lining the temperatures are highly likely to fall
from todays 80s to 90s to just 80s on Wednesday due to all the
rain and thunderstorms activity.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The weather system will most likely slowly depart the southern
plains through Thursday. This would cause the a slow downtrend of
the rain showers and thunderstorms starting first in the NW and
slowly progressing to the SE. This would make it most likely for
the last of the rain and thunderstorms associated with the weather
system depart or cease late on Thursday into the early morning
hours of Friday. Thursday will most likely be the coolest day as
the cooler air associated with the weather system moves across the
southern plains. The departure of the weather system will not be
the end of the stormy weather for the panhandles as lingering
moisture remains. This will more likely than not allow for a very
low to low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to form with
daytime heating for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures for both
these days will be on the rises as higher pressure becomes more
dominant across the region. For next week there remains a fair
amount of uncertainty in regards to what the weather will do. The
large scale pattern is broadly favoring a northwest flow setup
for the southern plains. This pattern typically favors the passage
of small scale weather system across the southern plains that
bring periods of increased rain and thunderstorm chances. As of
now it is more likely than not the early portions of next week
wont have such a system pass through. So our chances of rain
remain very low for Sunday through Tuesday. This could easily
change as it is hard to detect such small scale weather feature
this far out in time. Still a shift in the weather pattern makes
it more likely than not that at least a small cooldown should
occur for the early portions of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next
24 hours. But we will have some thunderstorm chances toward the
tail end of the TAF period that could be MVFR/IFR due to
thunderstorms, in which PROB30s have been noted. Winds generally
will be out of the south to southwest for the most part and be in
the 10 to 15kt range, currently gusting to 25kts through about
3-4z, then calming down thereafter. While there are some storms
lingering around the Panhandles this evening, timing and actual
impact to a TAF site is in question, and we`ll deal with them via
amendments as confidence increases.
Weber
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...89

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion