Lonepine, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

411
FXUS65 KMSO 250744
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
144 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
- At Least One More Warm Day: Unseasonably warm and dry
  conditions will peak today and Sunday, with valley temperatures
  in the 80s.
- Cooler & Breezy on Friday and Saturday: A weather system will
  usher in cooler and breezier conditions.
- Fall-Like Pattern Next Week: Confidence is increasing for a
  transition to a much cooler and wetter pattern by Tuesday.
Overview: Warmer than normal temperatures remain through Monday,
with today and Sunday much warmer than normal. By the middle of
next week there is a 30 to 50% chance temperatures will cool to
normal or just a couple degrees below normal. By next weekend, a
slight warm up is expected with temperatures hovering right at
climatological normal. This temperature rollercoaster will come
via a breakdown of the ridge today, a weak resurgence of the ridge
this weekend, followed by increasing confidence of a cool Pacific
trough around the 30th, and then a weak ridge redeveloping by
next weekend.
Breezy west winds will accompany the ridge weakening today and
tomorrow, additionally there will be very dry conditions.
Exercise caution if burning outside, especially in or around
grasses. Winds weaken over the weekend but become breezy again
with the potential trough mid next week. Looking at model
clusters, some form of trough passage is now 80 to 100%
probability from 30 Sept to 2 Oct.
Questions that remain are how deep or strong and how wet is this
trough. Currently, higher terrain of north- central ID, along the
MT and ID borders, and the Mission MTNS have the highest
probability of beneficial precipitation. Only the valleys of
north-central ID have any confidence of receiving beneficial rain
as of this forecast, monitor future updates as this may change.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail through Friday. A Pacific
trough will bring breezy to gusty westerly winds late today and
again most of Friday,
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS MSO Office Area Forecast Discussion