Long Lake, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

923
FXUS63 KGRB 071949
AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
249 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy-areas of frost expected late tonight into Monday morning.
  A Frost Advisory has been issued along and north of highway 29.
- Below normal temps continue tonight, with temps warming closer
  to seasonal norms mid-late week.
- Chances (30-70%) for rain showers and a few storms return
  Monday night into Tuesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Diurnally driven stratocumulus clouds will dissipate after sunset,
providing for mostly clear skies and light winds as a ridge of
high pressure tracks through the western Great Lakes region.
Temperatures will therefore plummet tonight under these
conditions, with lows ranging from the middle to upper 30s across
the north to the middle 40s along the lakeshore. The cold
temperatures across the north will likely lead to frost along and
north of Highway 29 with temperatures in the middle to upper 30s;
therefore, will issue a Frost Advisory for these areas overnight
into early Monday morning.
Strong warm air advection will commence on Monday as the high
pushes off to the east and surface winds turn to a southerly
direction. This will allow surface temperatures to warm into the
upper 60s across the north, with around 70 degrees across central
and east-central Wisconsin. While the CAMs indicate some sprinkles
are possible with this surge of warm air, model soundings indicate
quite a bit of dry air will be in place. Therefore, virga is the
most likely scenario from any clouds that develop with the warm
air advection.
A cold front will slowly track through the region from Monday
night through Tuesday night, which will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region. The best chance for precipitation
will be across the north Monday night into Tuesday, with lesser
chances across east-central Wisconsin Tuesday into Tuesday night
as the front loses a lot of its dynamics as it washes out across
the Great Lakes. Any thunderstorms should be on the weak side as
instability will only clock in at a few hundred J/kg.
Some light precipitation may linger into Wednesday, depending on
how progressive the front/trough is, then models are in fairly
good agreement showing another stretch of dry weather from
Wednesday into Friday as high pressure builds in. Temps will climb
back closer to seasonal norms by mid-week, with highs in the low
to mid 70s for most locations. There appears to be another shot at
precipitation next weekend as a low pressure system tracks through
the western Great Lakes; however, timing is still uncertain this
far out.
&&
.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A deck of diurnally driven stratocu clouds has formed across the
area this afternoon, with bases generally 3-4k ft. Although some
bases of 2.5-3k ft are noted, these bases should lift to VFR as
the afternoon wears on. Clouds will clear out late this afternoon
and evening with the loss of daytime heating. Patchy low clouds
and fog will be possible overnight into early Monday morning;
however, confidence too low to include in this set of TAFs.
Northwest winds will gust to ~15 kts this afternoon, then shift
to the west decrease to under 5 kts this evening and overnight.
South-southwest winds of 10 to 20 kts are then expected Monday
afternoon.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for WIZ005-010>013-
018>021-030-031-073-074.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion