Lorenzo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

593
FXUS64 KLUB 191740
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1240 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms on Saturday.
- Near record maximum temperatures Sunday and Monday.
- Daily chances for afternoon storms next week but probabilities
   are highly uncertain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The main player in the short term forecast will be a short wave
trough affecting the area on Saturday. Until that occurs, increasing
short wave ridging overhead today and tonight will bring a much
warmer night tonight. A short wave trough was currently located
across western New Mexico into eastern Arizona early this afternoon
per water vapor imagery. This trough is forecast to approach the
area early Saturday morning along with increasing jet level winds.
The upper level jet streak roughly around 80kt or so moving across
New Mexico will start nosing into the area on Saturday afternoon
bringing at least some weak large scale ascent. Simultaneously,
surface cyclogenesis will occur in the lee of the Rockies from
northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. A surface pressure
trough will slowly drag across the area during the day on Saturday
providing some lower level lift. Mid-level lapse rates will not be
too impressive but enough for mixed layer instability values topping
out between 500 and 1000 J/kg Saturday afternoon. Convective
temperatures look to be breached by mid-afternoon resulting in
isolated to widely scattered storms. There will be low but non-zero
chances of severe storms with this activity given the increasing
shear with the approaching trough and jet streak.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
After the initial short wave trough moves east of the area Saturday
evening, another will be approaching early Sunday morning but
farther north across the Texas Panhandle. Large scale subsidence
will be spreading overhead on Sunday with upper ridging building
over the Rockies into the Plains shutting off any precipitation
chances. The increase in upper level ridging will bring increasing
thickness values resulting in much warmer temperatures Sunday and
Monday. Temperatures will mostly be in the 90s on Sunday rising into
the upper 90s and lower 100s on Monday. These temperatures will be
approaching record territory on Sunday with current forecast values
at or exceeding records for Monday afternoon.
There will be daily chances of afternoon convection just about every
day next week but there is a high degree of uncertainty in the
probability. The upper level pattern will undergo a shift after the
weekend into a pseudo blocking pattern. This uncertainty stems from
an upper low currently moving across the Aleutian`s into the Gulf of
Alaska. The low is expected to move onshore this weekend into the
Pacific Northwest and then farther inland early in the week. As the
system moves inland it will close off and dive into the Plains. At
the same time, a low sitting off the coast of California will move
into the Great Basin. This will ultimately create this omega type
blocking pattern. The forecast location of the closed off lows on
either side of the ridge has been highly variable in each model run.
Models have been consistent in showing a cold front moving through
around Tuesday next week resulting in cooler temperatures following
a hot Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the TAF period.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning,
however timing and location is uncertain at the moment, therefore
left out of TAF. Light southerly winds will prevail through the TAF
period.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion