Los Angeles, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

565
FXUS64 KCRP 031125
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
625 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Hazardous beach conditions this weekend with a medium chance for
  minor coastal flooding starting early Saturday morning.
- Moderate risk of rip currents tonight into Saturday. Remember,
  "wave, yell, swim parallel!"
- Guidance trended drier with daily low (20-30%) chance of showers
  and storms Friday into the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Latest guidance has trended towards keeping the mid-level low/trough
farther east over the Gulf rather than near the Texas Coast.
Therefore moisture and rain chances have lowered overall. The mid-
level ridge over Mexico looks to dominate as it centers over the
southern CONUS early next week. However, daily low shower and
thunderstorm chances (20-30%) will remain present with near to above
normal moisture interacting with the afternoon seabreeze and
occasional bands of PVA wrapping around the backside of the mid-
level low. Above normal temperatures will continue with highs in the
low to mid 90s and lows from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Our main concerns will remain focused on dangerous swimming
conditions and hazardous beach/marine conditions this weekend, with
a medium chance for minor coastal flooding and an increased risk of
rip currents. Although I held off on a Coastal Flood Advisory this
package due to slightly lower tide level guidance (P-ETSS and
NGOFS2) and swell periods, we`ll still need to keep a close eye and
reconsider due to: astronomical high tide approaching with a full
moon phase, swell periods nearing 8 seconds, and moderate
northeasterly winds inducing the Ekman transport mechanism. In fact,
based on P-ETSS guidance, we`ll be flirting with water levels
nearing the dunes during high tide into early next week but there`s
quite a bit of ensemble uncertainty. Please use caution if going to
the beach!
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions expected throughout much of the TAF period. Winds
will be light and variable. There`s a low chance (15-20%) for fog
at VCT tomorrow morning 09Z-13Z with VSBYs less than 1 mile.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A generally light to gentle east to northeasterly breeze (BF 2-3)
will continue early this morning before increasing to a moderate to
strong breeze (BF 4-6) this afternoon and evening, nearing advisory
levels. Winds will hover around advisory criteria through Saturday
night along with seas 4-5 feet before winds decrease to a gentle to
moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Sunday shifting back east to southeasterly.
Low to medium (20-60%) rain and thunderstorm chances today through
Saturday night. Low (20-40%) rain chances will persist from Sunday
into the work week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Afternoon minimum relative humidity will generally range from 30-35%
across the Rio Grande Plains today. Moisture increases Saturday into
next week with minimum relative humidity above 30%. Although Energy
Release Component ranges from 50th-90th percentile, weak surface and
20 ft winds and increased moisture will limit the fire risk.
Slightly above normal temperatures will continue with low (20-30%)
shower and thunderstorm chances today continuing daily into the
middle of next week, mainly along the afternoon seabreeze over the
Coastal Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  73  89  74 /  20  10  30  20
Victoria          92  67  91  68 /  20  10  20  10
Laredo            95  71  94  71 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             94  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
Rockport          89  75  89  75 /  20  10  30  20
Cotulla           95  70  94  70 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        92  70  90  71 /  20  20  30  10
Navy Corpus       87  78  86  78 /  20  10  40  30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion