Lower Matecumbe Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

298
FXUS62 KKEY 071510
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1110 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Finally getting to see some SUN on this SUNday for the Florida
Keys. Unlike the last few days, KBYX radar remains mostly quiet
outside of a few stray light showers in the area. This morning`s
12z KKEY sounding did sample ample moisture in the atmosphere but
in comparison to what values we have been measuring it is lower.
MIMIC Precipitable Water does reveal we still are in a very moist
environment as well. Along the island chain, temperatures are in
the mid 80s with the Reef recording southwest winds of 5 to 10
knots. The lack of showers this morning could change as the day
progresses due to boundaries moving around the CWA that are just
dormant for the time being so did not make any adjustments to the
current PoPs of 50%. Outside of any shower development conditions
will be pleasant with highs in the Upper 80s and south to
southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots. No changes were necessary to
this update package.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Upper Keys waters
as minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots is
likely. Beyond that, no watches, warnings, or advisories are in
effect for the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a surface trough will
remain centered over the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula well
into the week. This trough will finally wash out heading into mid
week. However, the pressure field in and around the Keys will
remain poorly defined. Continued very high moisture levels and
weak steering currents will generally result in greater convective
coverage through the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. While shower activity is limited for the time being, pop
up showers could cross either terminal through the afternoon,
therefore, VCSH is included. Near surface winds will continue to
be south to southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....DP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion