Lucien, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

690
FXUS64 KJAN 240524
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1224 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The upper-level weather pattern for much of this week will see the
subtropical ridge suppressed to the south with broad and positively
tilted trough over much of the central and eastern CONUS. Sometimes
it is a challenge for the models to resolve exactly how the
vorticity will consolidate as the trough pattern breaks down, but a
shortwave rounding a Low over the Great Lakes and pivoting from the
Rockies into the South today through Thursday will be the primary
driver of weather in our area for the next 48 hours.
Gradual height falls with this system tonight into tomorrow will
support increased convection ahead of an approaching cold front.
Some forced storms can`t be ruled out along the front as it edges
into our forecast area, but modest instability and about 25-35 kts
of 0-6 km deep layer wind shear will result in potentially strong to
severe thunderstorms in the warm sector ahead of the front. Without
better forcing and better parameter space, the current Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms appears adequate for the isolated severe
storm potential with this system.
The main trough axis won`t pull east of our forecast area until
Friday, so periods of clouds and a chance for rain may linger into
Thursday and possibly Friday. The pattern uncertainty previously
mentioned will become more noticeable over the weekend and into
early next week. A portion of the trough is expected to close off
over the Southeast U.S. as northern jet stream ridging moves into
the central CONUS. Some guidance has even indicated a retrograding
low pressure system in that time frame. For now, we expected the
weekend into next week to stay dry. Will continue to monitor
adjustments in the guidance. /NF/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Low stratus and patchy BR could bring MVFR/IFR ceilings or
visibilities to a few sites tonight with the best chances for
lowered visibilities at our northern sites, and PIB/HBG between
10Z and 14Z. SHRA/TSRA chances will begin to increase again after
12Z for the remainder of the area, but confidence remains just
low enough to eschew from TAFs at this moment. /OAJ/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  70  85  65 /  80  80  50  10
Meridian      92  70  84  64 /  60  70  70  20
Vicksburg     89  69  85  64 /  80  70  30  10
Hattiesburg   94  73  86  67 /  60  60  80  30
Natchez       88  70  84  64 /  80  80  40  10
Greenville    85  67  83  62 /  80  60  20  10
Greenwood     87  68  84  62 /  80  70  20  10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
EC/EC/OAJ

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion