Lynchburg, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

369
FXUS62 KCAE 201743
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
143 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms today, with high pressure beginning
to build over the area this weekend. Above average temperatures
can also be expected through the weekend. Dry conditions
continue to start off the work week, then rain chances will be
on the increase from mid-week onward.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Isolated showers and storms develop this afternoon
Today`s weather will be very similar to the previous few days
due to a persistent upper level pattern, weak convergence, and
a relatively dry air mass. A minor difference will be the
location of the higher low-level moisture, which is a bit more
widespread today, evident by higher theta-e values across the
entire area. This should allow isolated convection to develop
across much of the area. Lapse rates are slightly steeper today
compared to yesterday with HREF probability of sbCAPE greater
than 1000 J/kg around 50-60% supporting a few thunderstorms.
Forcing overall still remains limited with zonal flow and weak
low level convergence so coverage will still be isolated to
widely scattered. Weak wind shear and lapse rates will not
support severe weather. Similar lows tonight in the mid 60s with
patchy morning fog along river valleys and other fog prone
locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Warm and mainly dry conditions continue into early this week.
Weak upper level troughing is forecast to continue across the
southeastern CONUS, with a trough axis at 250 hPa centered
across AL/MS border Sunday, slowly lifting northeastward through
Monday. Surface ridge axis is forecast to extend southwestward
into the Carolinas from the Mid-Atlantic, intensifying through
the day Sunday as a weak coastal low develops. The northeasterly
flow should result in drier air advecting into the region
through the day, keeping chances of rain lower than they are
today or yesterday, Highs will likely be in the upper 80s to
around 90. Monday looks fairly quiet as well. The trough axis
shifting near or overhead should help to weaken the surface
ridging that is in place, which may aid in allowing onshore,
southeasterly flow to begin again. While this may result in PWs
slowly rising again, only widely isolated showers are possible
in this regime. This would mainly be in the coastal plain where
the sea breeze makes it. Highs Monday look like they`ll be in
the upper 80s again. Lows both nights should be in the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Continued dry on Tuesday.
- Rain chances return for mid to late week.
- Above normal temperatures through Thursday, then turning
  cooler.
THe upper level pattern is forecast to amplify as we get into
the middle to late part of this upcoming week. This owes to a
shortwave digging into the central portion of the CONUS.
GUidance is split on how this actually evolves but the general
trend is towards a deeper trough that ends up moving slowly
eastwards Thursday/Friday/Saturday of the upcoming week. Before
this, heights will slowly rise in response to the amplifying of
the pattern, with well above normal temps expected again on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Even with moisture values increasing back
above normal, lows will be a bit higher in addition to
persistent southwesterly flow. Look for highs on Tues/Wed in the
90F-94F range. Moisture is forecast to increase in earnest by
Thur/Fri as the trough slowly approaches our forecast area. Some
guidance forecasts this to gradually cut off through the week,
and this seems fairly reasonable given another strong trough
forecast to end up along the west coast of the CONUS by this
time period. So the end result should end up being a few days of
actual, solid rain chances to close the forecast period out.
Each member of the LREF has high rain chances Thur/Fri of this
week, adding to forecaster confidence. Temps are forecast to
fall back to near or below normal values as a result of the
increasing clouds and rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A very similar weather pattern to the past few days expected
Although the air mass is relatively dry, there remains enough
moisture today to support isolated showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. Overall coverage will be limited and confidence
in any impacts to terminals remains low. Restrictions are
possible again tonight, especially at AGS and OGB. As with the
past few days confidence is highest at AGS and OGB so a
persistence forecast was favored. Winds will be light and
variable through tonight and pick up out of the NE on Sunday
morning from 5 to 10 kts.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief periods of early morning
fog/stratus remain possible, especially at AGS and OGB through
early next week. Moisture increases mid-week leading to
increasing chances for rain and widespread restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion