Madison, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

749
FXUS63 KOAX 282257
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
557 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures through the end
  of the work-week.
- Potential for strong frontal system next weekend which could
  bring in cooler, more seasonable temps for the following week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Clear skies with southeasterly winds have brought temperatures
back up into the mid 80s this afternoon. Water vapor imagery
shows significant dry air across the region inhibiting any cloud
development this afternoon.
A weak trough has developed a surface low over the northern
Rockies. This interacting with the southerly return flow on the
west side of the surface high over the Great Lakes region will
continue to enhance warm-air advection across the Northern and
Central Plains through Monday. With this, some locations may
approach or even reach 90 Monday afternoon.
The weak trough approaches the area late Monday starting to
bring in high clouds. These high clouds will only become thicker
Monday night into Tuesday leading to a slight cool-down as the
trough moves through Tuesday afternoon and evening. Significant
dry air below 500-mb will keep any precipitation from reaching
the ground, but we could potentially see a few echoes on radar
Tuesday afternoon. Highs on Tuesday drop down into the upper 70s
to low 80s.
Latest guidance has really deamplified the second ridge that is
forecast to move in later in the week, shortening the remaining
stretch of dry, warm weather toward the end of the week. Model
guidance now brings a transition to a southwesterly flow regime
ahead of a strong upper-level trough towards the end of the
week. This should start to advect moisture back in late Friday
into Saturday as the nocturnal low-level jet pivots eastward
toward our area.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show a Fall-like, synoptically-driven
frontal system moving through next weekend, with minor
differences in timing. This could potentially be the switch that
brings an end to Summer across our area as ensemble guidance
shows a distinct downward trend in the ensemble spread for
forecast highs and lows going into next week. Watch for severe
weather potential, though details right now are unclear.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will shift
from the southeast this evening to the south by Monday morning.
Speeds are expected to stay around 5-15 kts.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion