Malvern, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

584
FXUS63 KOAX 181033
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
533 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is
  expected today, and again on Friday. Severe weather is
  unlikely.
- Cooler temperatures in the 70s and low 80s continue into
  early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Today through Friday...
A broad upper trough continued to churn over the northern central
plains last night. Spotty showers and thunderstorms waned with the
absence of daytime heating, and patchy fog began to develop across
low lying areas where cooler air drained. By 2 AM, temperatures
dipped into the 60s, with visibilities down to 2 miles or less
at a few locations along and east of the Missouri River.
A vort max rotating along the southern periphery of the upper trough
will move in from the southwest, bringing another round of showers
and storms to the forecast area today. Expect storms to blossom over
southeast Nebraska late morning and gradually drift northeastward.
Overall storm intensity will likely be a function of instability
available from daytime heating/cloud cover. Overall, the best chance
for strong to severe storms will likely be off to our east this
afternoon and evening, where CAPE is maximized. However, a strong
storm or two can`t be completely ruled out within our forecast area
this afternoon.
A drier air mass will shift into the region this evening, behind the
departing vort max. A stray shower or two could linger into Friday
morning, but most activity should be out of the area by then. One
more surge of shortwave energy looks to shift across northeast
Nebraska Friday afternoon and evening, bringing renewed chances for
convection. Temperatures will remain relatively pleasant through the
end of the workweek. Highs will likely top out in the 70s Thursday
and Friday.
Saturday and Beyond...
The upper trough finally ejects into the Great Lakes region by
Saturday, with a midlevel thermal ridge building over the western
half of the CONUS this weekend. High temperatures will inch back
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Saturday and Sunday. A series
of shortwaves will pulse through the northwesterly flow aloft this
weekend, brining on again/off again rain chances Saturday through
Sunday night.
Latest runs of the global models drop yet another closed low out of
the intermountain west, and into the Central Plains next week. If
this pans out, we could see another push of cooler temperatures
and continued off/on rain chances through the first half of the
upcoming week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Patchy fog has developed across low lying areas along and east of
the Missouri River this morning. Visibilities may drop to MVFR and
IFR levels at KOMA briefly this morning, before fog dissipates after
sunrise. Scattered showers will overspread the forecast area from
southwest to northeast today. While there remains some
uncertainty as to when/if storms will impact the TAF sites, the
most likely time for showers will be from 19-23Z at KOMA.
Sparser coverage is expected in the KLNK area, however the best
chance will likely be from 18-24Z. Winds will remain light, out
of the southwest, with variable speeds and directions possible
in and around thunderstorms.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion