Manasota, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS62 KTBW 150722
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
322 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
A cutoff low lingers offshore the GA/SC coast this morning while a
surface low moves slowly up the eastern seaboard. This setup will
keep a northeast wind flow over the local area for the next couple
of days, with drier air limiting rain chances. These features will
slowly lift north/northeastward through mid-week, with not much
change to the overall forecast. While drier air will keep rain
chances low for the northern half of the forecast area, moisture
will still be high enough for scattered showers and storms for the
southern half. This becomes more pronounced later in the week into
next weekend, as deeper moisture gets pulled back northward.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Rain
chances remain low, but a few showers could affect southwest Florida
sites late in the afternoon or evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Northeast to east winds will remain over the waters through the next
few days, with a north or north-northwest turn near the coast each
afternoon. No headlines are expected, though winds could near
exercise caution each evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Drier air over the region will lead to lower rain chances over the
next few days, but relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels with no fire weather concerns. No fog is expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  74  91  75 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  91  73  91  74 /  30  10  50  20
GIF  91  71  91  72 /  10  10  10   0
SRQ  90  72  91  73 /  10   0  20  20
BKV  89  66  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  87  74  89  75 /   0   0  10  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion