Manchester, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

545
FXUS63 KTOP 281949
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
249 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry weather is forecast to continue through the
 week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite showed a broad upper
ridge centered along the lower and mid MS River Valley. The
polar jet extended from the northeast Pacific, northeast across
central Canada. A filling cut off upper trough was located
across the Great Basin and southwestern US.
At 1 PM, the surface winds were light from the south and
temperatures were already in the mid 80s.
Tonight through Friday:
The southern stream upper trough across the southwestern US
will fill as it lifts northeast across the Plains. The ascent
ahead of the the filling H5 trough will not provide enough
ascent for precip, given the lack of moisture return. There may
be enough ascent for some high and mid level clouds Tuesday
afternoon.
A more amplified H5 trough will move onshore across the western US on
Tuesday. The H5 trough across the western US will only slowly shift
east as shorter wave length H5 troughs lift out into the Great
Basin and northern Plains. A down stream H5 ridge will amplify
across the southern Plains northeast into the OH River Valley.
Expect the warm and dry conditions to continue.
Saturday through Sunday , another H5 trough will dig into the
southwest US and fill as the H5 trough lifts northeast across
the Plains. Richer moisture advection may provide a slight
chance for isolated shower and thunderstorms over the weekend. A
second upper level trough will dig southeast across the Pacific
northwest and dig southeast across the western US late Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Once again,
shallow ground fog may develop before sunrise at KTOP and KMHK.
If ground fog develops it should dissipate after 13Z MON.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion