Manhattan, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

534
FXUS63 KTOP 232240
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
540 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of light, scattered showers persist this evening into
  tomorrow afternoon. Severe weather is not expected.
- Dry and seasonable conditions return for the remainder of the
  week into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Elongated longwave trough axis is stretched across the central
plains per water vapor imagery this afternoon. Incoming mid level
ridge axis dominates the Pacific Northwest, progged to bring drier
conditions by tomorrow evening. Scattered light showers meanwhile
are meandering across the CWA this afternoon amid the stratus on the
northern periphery of the sfc low. This trend persists into the
overnight period as the upper trough axis shears out over the region
before slowly shifting southeast throughout the day Wednesday. CAMs
have been consistent in another vorticity lobe, developing showers
and embedded thunder moving southeast out of Nebraska early
Wednesday morning. MUCAPE values below 1000 J/KG and effective shear
values near 20 kts suggest severe probabilities are very low.
Additional rainfall amounts up to half of an inch are possible.
Clouds and light showers/sprinkles gradually come to an end by
the afternoon as skies become mostly sunny and highs reach the
lower and middle 70s.
Exiting upper low becomes cut off from the mean flow towards the
southeast as upper ridge settles throughout the central CONUS
through early next week. Weak low level mixing among sunny skies
each afternoon result in high temps near or slightly above normal
values in the lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
This is a low confidence forecast due to the poor handling by
the models. Latest trends suggests the better forcing from the
wave over northwest KS will slip south of the terminals. This
implies coverage of -RA may be more isolated. Meanwhile the
boundary layer is expected to remain near saturation. Forecast
soundings show some wind in the boundary layer to favor stratus
over fog. And many of the objective MOS outputs show IFR CIGS
developing while the NBM has probabilities for IFR CIGS around
60%. So in general will back off on precip and include a
prevailing group for IFR conditions. The upper wave is progged
to move south of the area Wednesday. This should promote
improving conditions through the afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Wolters

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion