Max, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

666
FXUS63 KGLD 021855
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1255 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures are forecast to continue into the
  start of the weekend with Friday looking to be the warmest day
  at this time with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
- Gusty to windy conditions are forecast to return Thursday
  afternoon through Saturday. Potential for elevated fire
  weather conditions Friday and Saturday. Some blowing dust may
  also occur Saturday with wind gusts of 40-50 mph; perhaps
  locally higher.
- Cooler, with normal to below normal temperatures Sunday
  through the middle portion of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
15Z Water Vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated broad H4 ridge
across southern half of country with strong shortwave trough moving
across the ridge in the southeast US and a strong trough continues
to build off the west coast. At the surface weak trough was noted at
the surface with some residual fog clinging to river valleys in the
northeast section of the area.
Main forecast concern will be Saturday with potential for strong
winds, fire weather, thunderstorms and blowing dust.
Tonight-Friday...Little in the way of forcing for ascent expected
through the period as aforementioned ridge remains primary
weather feature across the region. While some sfc based
instability expected this afternoon, vertical moisture profiles
are very shallow and without any focusing mechanism do not see
much if any potential for any diurnally driven storms today.
Only real sensible weather concern for the overnight hours will
be potential for fog developing in the eastern fringes of the
warning area. Given the valley fog observed this morning and at
least some weak moisture advection overnight,would think similar
scenario would play out tonight. Operational models not really
pointing to this scenario, but based on expected pattern a small
chance of fog seems reasonable. Similar pattern expected today,
although winds will increase throughout the day. Some moisture
advection anticipated with persistent southeastern flow, but
with H7 thermal ridge advecting over region strong cap will
inhibit any potential thunderstorm development.
Friday night through Saturday night...Strong H5 trough will approach
the four corners region overnight, resulting in a deepening sfc
trough to the lee of the Rockies. As a result, winds will remain
breezy through the night as winds just above the surface intensify
to around 50 kts. Given the time of day this will occur (03-06Z) I
do not think there is a strong potential for damaging wind gusts to
occur overnight, but it bears watching closely. Regardless of the
maximum magnitude of the winds overnight, breezy conditions will
likely continue all night keeping low temperatures well above
climatological normals and limiting near surface RH recovery
overnight. While that will not be a big issue during the night time,
it may play a role on Saturday afternoon and evening.
After several days of full sunshine and abundant sunshine expected
on Saturday morning combined with poor overnight humidity recovery
expect soils to be somewhat primed to be lofted by strong winds
Saturday afternoon. While confidence is high that soils will be
susceptible to being blown around, confidence not as high in the
magnitude of the winds and to a lesser degree the fire danger
threat. While last few runs of ECMWF ensemble have several members
gusting into the 50-55mph range, the bulk of members keep gusts in
the 40-45 mph range which aligns with latest GEFS, Canadian ensemble
and operational model runs. While the trend towards lower wind
speeds does tend to lower confidence in both dust and fire weather
threat, pattern does give me concern that stronger solutions still
may be realized and do not plan on changing much in the way of
messaging until data trends solidify more. Should stronger winds and
blowing dust event materialize, most likely scenario will be
several plumes developing in afternoon and being lofted well
into the air downwind from the source, likely limiting dust
impacts to the immediate area around dust sources. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will impact area north of Interstate
70 overnight Saturday behind cold front. Severe weather threat
is very limited and will likely occur only if storms can develop
in warm sector ahead of front where damaging winds will be the
primary threat.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
In the extended (Sunday through Thursday)...Cooler and more
unsettled conditions are anticipated through next week as
colder air becomes much more established over the area through
the start of the week. Initial cold front on Saturday night
will lower highs back down to near normal values, with a
reinforcing shot of cold air moving into the area Monday
keeping highs below normal through much of the work week.
Abundant cloud cover with front in the vicinity will like hold
low temperatures up somewhat, so as it stands it does not look
like there will be a risk of a freeze through Thursday morning.
Precipitation potential will be strongly tied to location of the
front, although given expected pattern do not anticipate much
in the way of a severe thunderstorm threat.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both terminal locations as
developing sfc low will cause winds to shift to the southeast
through the afternoon and evening hours. There is a small (15%)
chance for morning fog along river valleys impacting the MCK
terminal between 10 and 14Z, but think overall impact will be
small.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JRM

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion