Mayfield, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

199
FXUS64 KTSA 090538
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Low shower and thunderstorm chances generally along and northwest
   of Interstate 44 through the morning.
- Mostly dry and warm weather into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Spotty showers will linger through the morning hours most likely
across portions of northeast Oklahoma and possibly into the early
afternoon across northwest Arkansas near the mid level trough axis
as it slowly exits the area. A few thunderstorms may occur with
stronger cells north and west of I-44 where very limited elevated
instability is present. Still, any precip will remain fairly light
as low level dry air remains entrenched over the region. Amounts
generally less than a tenth of an inch can be expected with some
locally higher amounts up near a half inch in any thunderstorms. The
trough axis should exit the area by midday taking any shower chances
with it as the upper ridge begins to build over the Plains. Some
morning cloud cover will hold temps down for a bit across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas before rebounding in the afternoon
into the low to mid 80s once again. An otherwise quiet day is in
store after any shower activity through the morning.
Bowlan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A fairly persistent forecast is in store through the rest of the
work week and into the weekend under the influence of a seasonably
strong upper ridge. Upper heights continue to rise through the end
of the week as the ridge strengthens over the Plains. With this,
temps will trend upward, reaching into the 90s for many locations
Thursday through Saturday. Mainly dry weather is forecast, though
there are some hints at another decaying MCS approaching northeast
Oklahoma during the afternoon on Wednesday. Again, any storms will
be on the downward trend and any precip light if it does occur.
Otherwise, the next best chance for any rain will arrive on Sunday
as an upper trough moving through the northern CONUS tries to break
down the ridge enough to squeeze some showers into the region along
with slightly cooler temperatures back near seasonal normals.
Bowlan
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  62  88  65 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   85  62  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   84  60  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   83  59  85  62 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   83  59  89  63 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   83  60  90  62 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   83  61  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   82  61  86  62 /  20  10   0   0
F10   84  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   82  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion