Maynard, Massachusetts Weather Forecast Discussion

830
FXUS61 KBOX 260653
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
253 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and warm today with increasing sunshine as a front
moves to the east. Other than a risk of some showers late
Saturday night into Sunday morning, continued warm and dry
weather this weekend into early next week. Then a strong cold
front will deliver a fall airmass Wednesday and Thursday with
much cooler temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:
* Warm and humid today with increasing sunshine
* Low risk for a brief shower late in the day in the interior
Weak front moves to the east this morning but stalls near the coast.
However, enough mid level drying moving in from the west will lead
to clouds giving way to partly to mostly sunny skies from west to
east. A fairly robust shortwave and pocket of cooler temps aloft
moves into the region late in the day. Some of the hi-res CAMs do
show a few widely scattered showers developing in the interior which
can`t be ruled out, but otherwise dry conditions. Not much low level
cooling today with 925 mb temps 18-19C and westerly flow at the
surface so expect highs to reach upper 70s to lower 80s. It will
remain humid as dewpoints start out in the mid-upper 60s in the
coastal plain with only a slight drop in the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Clearing and comfortably cool tonight
* Warm and dry Saturday
Mid level shortwave moves offshore this evening followed by clearing
skies with light winds. Decent radiation cooling will allow temps to
fall into the low to mid 50s across much of the interior, with upper
50s to lower 60s closer to the coast. Elevated dewpoints combined
with cooling may lead to some patchy late night fog developing.
Weak high pres will build across New Eng Sat maintaining dry
weather, although high clouds will begin to overspread the region
from the south from south to north during the afternoon. Another
warm day as 925 mb temps 17-18C. Highs will reach the upper 70s, but
a bit cooler near the coast as sea-breezes develop. Dewpoints
expected to be in the upper 50s and lower 60s so still a tad humid,
especially closer to the south coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Chance of showers late Sat night into Sunday morning, especially
  near the south coast
* Mainly dry Mon through Thu
* Above normal temps Sun through Tue, then turning much cooler Wed
  and Thu
* Humberto will remain offshore next week, but will result in
  increasing surf and rip currents Tue and especially Wed
Uncertainty remains Sat night into Sun with northern extent of sub-
tropical moisture. Confluent flow aloft complicates matters as there
will likely be a sharp cut off on the northern edge of the precip
shield. GFS is still the furthest north of the global guidance but
ECMWF has crept northward a bit. Canadian and UKMET keep moisture to
the south as does the NAM. Based on GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance,
there is some risk for showers getting into SNE late Sat night and
early Sun, especially near the south coast but confidence remains
below normal given expected sharp northern gradient to the precip.
Even if showers do reach SNE they will be moving out by Sun morning
and much of the rest of the day is expected to be dry with some
sunshine developing from N to S in the afternoon.
Mon looks warm and dry with potential for 80 degrees then a potent
northern stream trough will drop south from eastern Canada through
midweek and will serve to deflect Humberto to the east Tue-Wed as it
is forecast to remain well offshore. However, it will likely bring
increasing swell and high surf to the beaches Tue and especially Wed
with highest surf along the south coast. This trough will bring a
dry cold front southward across the region on Tue and will keep
another potential tropical cyclone across the SE US from advancing
northward with tropical moisture remaining well to the south.
Warm weather will linger into Tue, then much cooler airmass settles
south across SNE Wed and Thu in post-frontal airmass as strong high
pres builds to the north with NE flow developing.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z TAF Update
Through 12z...
MVFR-IFR near the coast, otherwise improving to VFR further
inland but may see patchy fog develop. Winds shift to W 5-10 kt.
Today...High Confidence.
Patchy MVFR cigs over Cape/Islands early, otherwise VFR with
gradual clearing but diurnal CU developing this afternoon. W
wind 8-15 kt.
Tonight and Saturday...High Confidence.
VFR. Winds becoming light NW tonight. Light winds Sat with sea-
breezes developing.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Saturday...High Confidence
Diminishing wind shifting to W-SW this morning with seas gradually
subsiding. Conditions will drop below SCA this morning. Relatively
quiet boating conditions tonight into Sat with turning northerly
tonight, then E-NE Sat with speeds below 15 kt.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ232>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250-
     254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ255-
     256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...KJC

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion