Mayview, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

817
FXUS63 KEAX 192002
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
302 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms move into NW Missouri this evening, spread through
  the region overnight, decrease in coverage through the day
  Saturday.
- Additional showers and storms possible Sunday and Sunday night.
- Unsettled weather pattern continues next week with multiple
  chances of precipitation through the entire week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Isolated showers and storms developed along the Highway 65 to
Highway 63 corridor along a weak front or trough and in an area
of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. This activity will move east later
this afternoon and no strong or severe storms are expected.
Focus then shifts to a strong shortwave trough, evident via
water vapor imagery, moving southeast toward the area from
central Nebraska. Radar shows more robust convection with this
shortwave. The strongest convection with this activity is
further west, near Kearney to Holdrege, NE, where it is tapping
into 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The strongest instability will
remain west of the area, from north central to southern KS. As
this shortwave tracks to the southeast, strong forcing and
upper-level diffluence will spread into our northwestern zones.
This will lead to an area of rain, with a few embedded storms,
moving into northwestern MO and far northeastern KS early this
evening. As the shortwave shifts east overnight, this initial
area of rain should weaken, but increasing southerly to
southwesterly low-level flow, with modest moisture transport
into the area, will lead to additional development early
Saturday morning that may then spread through most of the
forecast area through the morning hours. Though the most likely
area for precipitation will be along and south of Highway 50.
The threat of any severe weather is very low, as instability
remains fairly weak.
Precipitation chances continue Sunday and Sunday night. Though the
trend has been for lower PoPs and mainly south of the the Missouri
River. Instability continues to look weak so the threat of any
strong or severe storms continues to look low.
The unsettled weather pattern will continue next week. Ensemble mean
500mb heights show low getting cutoff from the upper-level flow
that is shifted well north of the region. Some variation of
this pattern is supported in most of the ensemble clusters as
well, though with various intensity and placement of the upper
low. Given this pattern, a chance for precipitation looks
reasonable nearly every day. This pattern may help to mitigate
the emerging drought and trend temperatures closer to normal in
the area but it`s just too uncertain to dive any deeper into
details.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
There will be a brief period of MVFR ceilings initially as the
area transitions from morning fog lifts/transitions into
afternoon CU. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this
afternoon and likely through the forecast. Scattered showers
move into the area tonight with the most likely timing after
05Z for the KC area and after 03Z for STJ.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion