Mc Guffey, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

758
FXUS61 KILN 191732
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
132 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue through Saturday with low rain chances
possible Sunday into early next week. Warm temperatures are expected
through early next week before a wetter and cooler pattern develops
toward the middle and end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid level ridge over the region which has supplied the warm and dry
weather conditions begins to shift east overnight. Few cumulus
clouds which have developed today with dissipate with the loss of
heating. Mid and high level moisture will advect in with the
approach of a negatively tilted trof.
Temperatures tonight drop to lows from the upper 50s in outlying
areas to the lower 60s in urban locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level shortwave to pivot northeast thru the Great Lakes
Saturday. Expect a good canopy of high level clouds with some
diurnally driven cumulus clouds during the afternoon. Warm
temperatures generally top out in the upper 80s.
Low level flow becomes a little more southerly Saturday night
allowing the start of an increase in low level  moisture late. This
could result in the shower across the far west toward sunrise Sunday
but the better forcing and moisture stays west of the region. Lows
Saturday night range from 60 in the east to the mid 60s west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High temps are warmest on Sunday with low 80s west/high 80s east,
then lower by Wednesday to the mid 70s northwest/upper 70s elsewhere.
These 70s then stay fairly static through Friday. Expect overnight
lows 60-65 through Tues night dropping to the mid-upper 50s and
staying there from Wed night onward, coolest in the northern CWA.
Sunday afternoon will see precip chances ramp up from w-e as H5 s/w
vort maxima passes northeast. Rain chance during the evening and
overnight may be too high based on model solution variance.
This enhanced precip forecast of likely pops continues through
Monday and into the overnight hours. Mon night looks to be an
enhanced period of rain but continued spread in solutions exists
yielding low overall forecast confidence.
Pops decrease back to a chance on Tuesday, which then persist
through Friday with a slight decrease noted in northern CWA
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In a dry airmass VFR conditions are generally expected to persist
through the TAF period. The exception is the valley KLUK location
where some brief MVFR vsby restrictions are possible late tonight
due to fog. A few flat high based cumulus clouds this afternoon will
dissipate with the loss of heating this evening yielding mostly
clear skies early. This will be followed by thickening high level
and some mid level clouds which will spill into the the region from
the west late tonight into Saturday. Also, scattered cumulus clouds
will be possible again Saturday.
Light and variable thru tonight will become southeast at less than
10 kts Saturday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ070-071-077-078.
     Air Quality Alert until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056-
     065.
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ091>093.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-
     074.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for INZ073-075-
     080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion