Meade, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

984
FXUS63 KDDC 091010
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms, some potentially severe, is possible Tuesday
  afternoon favoring areas west of US-283.
- Generally dry with near-normal afternoon temperatures
  expected Wednesday through Friday.
- Temperatures begin to cool over the weekend, along with
  renewed precipitation chances favoring Saturday evening into
  Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at 07Z
Tuesday morning reveal weak upper level ridging remains in
place over the spine of the Rockies, with a strong longwave
trough impinging on the west coast. Daytime Tuesday, guidance
indicates the ridge will emerge onto the High Plains, driven by
the eastward momentum of the upstream trough. As this happens,
the last vestige of surface high pressure will exit the central
plains and be replaced by broad low pressure. Given subsidence
under the ejecting ridge, mostly clear skies are likely across
southwest KS, supporting afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low
90s. Later in the afternoon, a weak shortwave impulse cresting
the ridge will eject onto the central plains, potentially
providing enough forcing for thunderstorm development. While
northwesterly mid-level flow will be on the order of 20 kts,
south-southeast surface winds veering with height will yield
adequate deep-layer shear amidst 1000-1500 J/Kg SBCAPE to
support at least some storm organization/severe threat favoring
areas west of US-283. Primary hazards will again be large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms may persist through the
overnight period, and may even expand in coverage, sustained by
the LLJ as they translate southeastward.
Showers and weak thunderstorms, remnants from the overnight
activity, may be ongoing Wednesday morning across our southeast
zones as some HREF members suggest, but little to no hazards are
expected. Short range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will
slow down/stall atop the High Plains daytime Wednesday,
resulting in another day of mostly clear skies and afternoon
highs in the upper 80s/low 90s. The ridge will also likely
suppress most, if not all, renewed thunderstorm activity during
the afternoon, with the only hope within our area existing
across our far southwest zones near Elkhart.
Thursday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles
agree the upper level ridge will take its sweet time exiting the
High Plains as the cut-off nature of the upstream trough will
delay its ejection onto the plains until the weekend. Therefore,
near-normal afternoon highs can be expected through the end of
the work week, followed by decreasing temperatures over the
weekend into early next week. Precipitation chances will also
begin to increase as the upper trough draws near, with NBM
probability of QPF exceeding 0.1" in the 25-45% range Saturday
evening into Sunday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Winds
will remain aob 12 kts through 12Z Wednesday, varying from the
southwest to southeast.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion