Melbourne Beach, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

234
FXUS62 KMLB 192256
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
656 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- A moderate risk of rip currents exists at all Atlantic beaches
  today. Always swim near a life guard!
- Below-normal rain and storm chances forecast through this
  weekend, with a return to near-normal rain chances early next
  week as moisture increases locally.
- Temperatures remain near normal through next week due to
  persistent onshore flow and limited cloud cover.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Current-Tonight...A weak area of low pressure located across the
western Atlantic is forecast to continue northeastward through the
remainder of today and into tonight, with gusty northeast winds
locally funneling drier air towards east central Florida. This drier
air mass has caused PWATs to fall to 1.1 to 1.3" near the greater
Orlando area and northward, with PWATs of 1.4 to 1.7" focused across
the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties. This set-up across east
central Florida has led to isolated shower development across the
local Atlantic waters south of Cape Canaveral, and mostly dry
conditions across the peninsula. The northeasterly flow has been
supporting some onshore movement of showers along the immediate
coast from Titusville southward this afternoon, and this will
continue to be possible through the remainder of the afternoon and
into the early evening hours. Confidence in storm development
remains low through the rest of today, though if any storms were to
develop, they may be capable of producing lightning strikes and
gusty winds. Rain and storm chances will stay low through the
overnight hours, with isolated to scattered development possible
across the local Atlantic waters.
The drier air has helped reduce some of the upper level cloud
coverage, allowing for some increased daytime heating across east
central Florida. Temperatures remain on track to hit the low 90s
across portions of the interior, with upper 80s forecast elsewhere.
Gusty northeast winds are anticipated to continue over the next
several hours, with sustained wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts
up to 25 mph possible, especially along the coast. Winds diminish
into the overnight hours to 5 to 10 mph, with lows falling into the
upper 60s to mid 70s.
Saturday-Sunday...Quasi-zonal flow aloft paired with persistent
north to northeast winds will help keep drier air situated across
east central Florida through this weekend. Modeled PWAT values
continue to remain between 1.1 to 1.6" locally, with the highest
moisture focused closer to the Treasure Coast and near Lake
Okeechobee. Based on this moisture set-up, PoPs generally remain
below 30 percent across the Treasure Coast on Saturday and below 40
percent areawide on Sunday. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out,
especially on Sunday, but confidence in this does remain low. Any
activity that manages to develop may be capable of producing
lightning strikes and gusty winds along with brief downpours.
Showers and storms are anticipated to diminish across the peninsula
each evening, with ongoing development across the local Atlantic
waters forecast overnight.
North to northeast winds remain breezy through the weekend,
especially along the coast. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph will be possible each day, becoming lighter into
the overnight hours. Drier air will support lower cloud cover, which
in turn will allow for greater daytime heating across east central
Florida. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 80s
along the coast and in the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior.
Overnight temperatures are forecast to remain in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.
Monday-Friday...A mid to upper level trough near the Great Lakes
is forecast to slowly extend southward across the eastern US
early next week. By mid to late week, the trough transitions into
a cutoff low across the central US where it will slowly drift
towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas. Locally, this will
result in the quasi-zonal flow above the Florida peninsula
transitioning into some troughing aloft, with model guidance
hinting at the development of a weak surface boundary across south
Florida. Moisture will begin to slowly build northward towards
east central Florida in this pattern, resulting in a return of
near-normal rain and storm chances across the area next week.
There continues to be some disagreement between guidance in
moisture available, so stuck close to NBM through the extended
forecast for PoPs (40 to 50 percent). Confidence in storm
development remains low, but anticipate the picture becoming
clearer as time moves on and guidance comes into better agreement.
Winds become a bit more onshore through the extended forecast, with
the east coast sea breeze expected to develop each afternoon and
move inland. Temperatures are forecast to slowly warm next week,
with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. The extent of
temperatures in the low 90s is expected to expand across the area as
the warming trend occurs. Overnight temperatures remain generally
consistent in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Persistent northeast winds across the local waters remain around
10 to 15 knots through the weekend as a result of a weak area of
low pressure located across the western Atlantic waters. Seas
build to 3 to 5 feet as a result. The northeast flow will also
continue to transport drier air towards the area, with below
normal rain chances anticipated through the weekend. By early next
week, a weak surface boundary is forecast to develop south of the
local waters, with moisture increasing locally as a result. Rain
and storm chances increase next week, with onshore winds forecast
to persist around 10 knots. Seas generally remain between 3 to 5
feet, with some guidance hinting at the potential for brief 6 foot
seas across the offshore waters at times.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 656 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A batch of drier air sitting over the Central FL peninsula will
keep conditions quiet over the Orlando area terminals through the
period. A few showers will push onshore overnight into Saturday
along the Treasure Coast, perhaps also clipping MLB. VFR with
lessening NNE/N winds tonight, becoming NE 10-15 G20 KT on
Saturday afternoon. Ocnl MVFR in showers for VRB/FPR/SUA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  86  73  86 /   0  10  10  30
MCO  73  91  73  91 /   0  10   0  30
MLB  76  88  75  88 /  10  10  10  30
VRB  74  88  74  88 /  10  20  20  30
LEE  71  90  71  90 /   0  10   0  20
SFB  72  89  72  89 /   0  10   0  30
ORL  73  90  73  90 /   0  10   0  30
FPR  74  88  73  88 /  10  20  10  30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Heil

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion