Menominee, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

538
FXUS63 KMQT 100714
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
314 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog are possible early this morning over the
  western and north central UP. Areas of dense fog could return
  and spread into all of the UP tonight.
- High temps mainly in the 60s and 70s expected for the
  remainder of this week.
- Drier weather after today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
As frontogenesis and troughing continue to decrease across the area
today, expect the coverage and intensity in rain showers to
diminish. Now that most of the rainfall is done, we may begin to see
areas of fog develop over the north central and western U.P. early
this morning as high pressure ridging slowly builds into the region
from the north. Given the large amount of liquid that has fallen
over the past 24 hours, the fog could be dense in spots; I wouldn`t
be surprised if a Dense Fog Advisory would need to be issued later
this morning for at least the western half of the U.P., even despite
the remaining low-level cloud cover. That being said, perhaps the
low-level cloud cover prevents fog from occurring early this
morning; we are continuing to monitor the situation and will issue
either an SPS or Fog Advisory if dense fog starts developing across
the western half.
Moving into the daylight hours, we may see an uptick in rain showers
across the central and east as the sunlight adds some instability to
the atmosphere; with the sunlight creating a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE to work with by this afternoon, we could hear a few rumbles
of thunder from time-to-time. However, with low-level cloud cover
more likely than not remaining throughout the daylight hours today,
heating at the sfc is projected to be somewhat limited, with highs
only getting into the 60s (warmest in the south central and east).
Winds are expected to be much lighter today in comparison to
yesterday morning too, remaining calm this morning until becoming
northeasterly up to around 10 mph across most of the area by this
afternoon (southeasterly over the south central most likely). As we
head into tonight, the last of the rain showers looks to vanish over
the south central/interior west not long after sunset as the diurnal
CAPE fades. However, with calm winds, increasing ridging, and
abundant sfc moisture still expected, fog is expected to develop
across the U.P. tonight; thinking lows tonight will only drop down
into the mid 50s given the favorable likelihood that fog develops
across the entire peninsula.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Drier weather continues into Thursday as a high pressure block
begins to develop overhead from the Plains and Southeastern U.S..
Because of the increase in atmospheric pressure, expect skies to
start clearing out, allowing high temperatures on Thursday to be a
few degrees warmer than what`s expected today, and for lows Thursday
night to be able to sneak into the 40s in the interior. However, we
could see the dry weather end late this week as a Clipper low moves
through the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. As of the time
of this writing, it seems like we could see rain showers and
thunderstorms associated with this Clipper anytime between late
Friday to Saturday. However, don`t expect much to change in
temperature trends due to the Clipper, as we should still see
temperatures climb to around to above normal from Friday into next
week (highs trending from mainly the 60s today to mainly the 70s
this weekend and beyond). In addition, with an omega block building
from the Plains into the Canadian Prairies this weekend starving the
Clipper low of Pacific moisture, not much rainfall is expected with
this weak system. As the omega block progresses eastward, expect dry
weather to return over the U.P. for Sunday.
Moving into next week, confidence in the forecast drops off.
However, available medium range guidance does suggest that the omega
block could continue a little bit further eastward, setting up shop
in the Great Lakes region to far northern Ontario. If this happens
and we do end up on the western side of the omega block next week,
then we could see shortwaves riding along the high pressure block
bring additional convection to the U.P., particularly over the
western half. In addition, should we end up on the western side of
the omega block, expect Gulf air to move in, bringing additional
warming and moisture to the area. However, should the block be
further west than the previously mentioned solution, expect more
normal temperatures and drier conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Abundant low level moisture, light winds, and overnight cooling will
support fog/mist developing and LIFR ceilings at KIWD/KCMX. Current
TAF does not include airport minimums, but exceeding minimums cannot
be ruled out. Conditions should improve some Wednesday, but at least
IFR/MVFR categories appear likely to persist through the day. At
KSAW, shower activity will continue diminishing tonight, followed by
fog/mist and lowering ceilings. Continued uncertainty about how low
KSAW will get overnight, but airport minimums will be possible.
Additionally, light upslope northeasterly flow Wednesday will result
in at least MVFR conditions through the day, before returning to
IFR/LIFR Wednesday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Light winds of 20 knots or less are generally expected throughout
the period as high pressure ridging builds the rest of the week and
remains through next week. Thinking some dense fog is being realized
this morning over the western half of the lake as it has been seen
on the Isle Royale webcams; thus a Dense Fog Advisory has been
issued for this morning. While confidence is mixed on whether the
dense fog over the western half will continue through the daylight
hours today, I am fairly confident that it will return tonight and
spread into the eastern half of the lake as well; another Dense Fog
Advisory may need to hoisted up for tonight in the future. With high
pressure building in to end the week, I do wander if lake fog will
continue to be a problem for the next several days...
A weak Clipper moving through sometime late Friday to Saturday could
bring a few showers and storms back over Lake Superior. Outside of
that, depending on how a high pressure block sets up, we either
could remain rain-free or get multiple `rounds` of showers and
storms returning to the lake next week, particularly the western
half (the Long-Term discussion gives greater detail as to why if you
want to know more).
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
     for LSZ162-240>244-263-264.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...TAP

NWS mqt Office Area Forecast Discussion