Merricourt, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

203
FXUS63 KBIS 231121
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
621 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible until mid-morning.
- Above average temperatures and dry conditions through the
  week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Cold frontal boundary will continue passing through the state
early this morning. As a result, sustained northwesterly winds
of around 6 to 12 mph are present across much of western
through central ND. This is not a favorable wind for radiational
fog development. However, in areas where winds are, or may
become, light and variable; patchy shallow fog remains possible
until mid-morning. The most favorable area for these conditions
is the south central, including the James River Valley, and
eastern ND. Though patchy fog could still develop in parts of
the southwest and north central as well. Additional patchy fog
development is possible again tonight mainly in the south
central east of the Missouri River, and eastern ND.
For the remainder of the workweek, lowly amplified ridging
pattern will prevail resulting in seasonably warm and dry
conditions. Or rather, highs mostly in the 70s, with a few
readings in the low 80s at times. Lows meanwhile will be mostly
in the mid 40s to low 50s. Passing shortwave and associated cold
frontal boundary towards the end of the workweek may bring in
slightly cooler temperatures, but conditions are still favored
to remain dry at this time.
One final note is that elevated smoke looks to pass across the
area today through tonight, while low concentrations of near-
surface smoke may be present in the eastern half of the state.
Slightly higher concentrations of near-surface smoke may then
enter western ND Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
However, that remains a bit up in the air at this time as there
remains some disagreement between the HRRRSmoke and RAPSmoke
models.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Barring shallow patchy fog development as the sun rises, or
patchy fog tonight, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected
through the period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion