Metcalfe, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

093
FXUS64 KJAN 210520
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Most of the day`s convection has dissipated but similar to this
time last evening, isolated showers were across portions of the
Highway 84 corridor. These showers will gradually dissipate by
midnight and no additional rain is expected. The remainder of the
forecast was on track. /22/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Tonight through Tuesday...Despite the Autumn Equinox coming Monday,
September 22, 2025 at 1819Z, the next few days will essentially
be an extension of what`s been a hot summer this year. Highs
through Tuesday will continue to warm into the low and middle 90s
with lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Moisture will subtly
increase across the region during this time, causing increasingly
humid conditions each day. Rain chances will remain diurnally
driven and in the form or mainly isolated showers and storms, with
a stray storm or two intense enough to produce some gusty winds.
These will gradually subside during the early evening hours.
Things will begin to change across the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday. /19/
Wednesday through Friday...The forecast gets more interesting during
the middle of next week. Global models have trended more amplified
with a shortwave trough expected to dig southward through the
Mississippi Valley region. As the trough digs and deep layer flow
increases, a developing surface wave and strengthening warm sector
will lower pressures over the forecast area Wednesday. This could
result in a threat for strong to marginally severe multicell
clusters and perhaps a few supercells if the cold frontal timing and
storm initiation coincide with peak heating. We are currently not
messaging for severe weather in our graphics and products, but it
may be a potential threat to monitor as we go through the next few
days.
Going into late week, the trough should slowly shift east, which
could prolong the potential for beneficial rainfall as cyclonic flow
lingers. Otherwise, temperatures will cool to near typical values
for late September. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Aside from a few high clouds and light southerly winds, quiet
conditions will prevail across all TAF sites with VFR conditions
prevailing. /CR/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  92  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
Meridian      67  92  67  92 /  10  10   0  10
Vicksburg     69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
Hattiesburg   69  93  68  95 /  10  10   0  10
Natchez       67  91  69  93 /  10  10   0  20
Greenville    69  93  71  92 /  10  10  20  30
Greenwood     69  93  71  92 /  20  10  10  20
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
22/19/CR

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion