Middle Torch Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

035
FXUS62 KKEY 101533
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1133 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Conditions have settled down after a somewhat active start to the
day. Just before sunrise, a few thunderstorms developed just west
of the Lower Keys before moving over the island chain bringing a
quick early morning dousing. MRMS QPE notes max values just under
0.6 inches over land with higher values estimated over waters to
the south. Meanwhile, widely scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms churned east through the north edge of our Deep Gulf
waters. While the island chain is now rain free, convection
continues to bubble in the Gulf waters and also in the Straits
just south of the Lower and Middle Keys. Offshore observation
stations report light broadly southwest to west breezes outside of
convection. Temperatures along the island chain range in the
upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the upper 70s.
No real change in our synoptic pattern keeps rain chances above
normal in the short term. A surface low in the Gulf is promoting
generally southwest breezes through our area. Meanwhile, confluent
and moist flow in the low to mid levels will keep a decent
environment for developing convection today, but only if lift can
be found from existing boundaries. This morning`s KKEY balloon
sounding is juiced up with a PW near 2.5 inches. While part of
this may be due to the showers nearby at time of launch, CIMSS
MIMIC PW does note a large swath of values greater than 2.25
inches painted across the island chain. Now whether or not showers
will get to use this moisture is a different story as CAMs are
back and forth on if convection will explode or not. A hint of dry
air in the eastern Straits could spell some trouble if it
eventually makes its way around. Opted to keep 50 PoPs today
moving to 40% tonight keeping just above guidance while still
respecting the possible intrusion of dry air and lack of lift.
Tomorrow, light and variable winds could inspire an island cloud
line day, so be on the lookout for that.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a weak
surface low centered over the eastern Gulf will smear out into a
flimsy trough stretching across the Florida Peninsula. In
response, light southwesterly breezes will become more variable in
direction. Disorganized weak flow will remain through much of the
remainder of the work week. While uncertainty remains high,
confidence is ticking upward that high pressure over the eastern
United States will manage to build southward through Florida and
into the Keys this weekend. This will spur modestly strengthening
northeasterlies.
&&
.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout today. Showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out but low
confidence in exact timing and coverage will keep mention to just
VCSH for now. Near surface winds will be light and start out of
the southwest to west, becoming variable late.
&&
.CLIMATE...
On this day in 2017, the eye of category 4 Hurricane Irma moved
across Cudjoe Key with maximum sustained winds 130 mph. Storm survey
evidence estimated the highest 3-second wind gusts on Big Pine Key
and Scout Key, at 150 to 160 mph. In the Florida Keys, 1,179 homes
were destroyed, 2,977 homes received major damage and 5,361 suffered
minor damage. More than 1,300 vessels were damaged or destroyed. The
storm surge reached 5-8 feet across the Lower Keys. WFO Key West
measured maximum sustained winds of 72 mph and gusts to 93 mph. Peak
measured gusts of 120 mph occurred at the Key Deer National Wildlife
Refuge and a private residence on Big Pine Key. Rainfall totals of 6
to 12 inches were measured at available rain gauges, with a maximum
of 12.54 inches at the Key Deer Wildlife Refuge on Big Pine Key.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  81  90  80 /  40  30  40  40
Marathon  90  81  90  80 /  50  40  50  40
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion