Millard Highlands, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

694
FXUS63 KOAX 182325
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms will move through portions of southeast Nebraska
  into southwest Iowa into this evening. A few could be strong
  to severe (5% chance) with damaging winds the primary threat,
  however hail or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
- On and off storm chances will continue Friday, through the
  weekend, and into next week. Some locally heavy rain is
  possible Friday night into early Saturday. Severe weather
  chances remain low.
- High temperatures in the 70s and low 80s continue into next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Main feature of note early this afternoon was a vorticity
maximum sliding through KS with a surface cold front surging
northeast. Associated precipitation was stretching from
northeast NE all the way into central OK. The big forecast
challenge will be regarding potential storm development through
the afternoon and into this evening, and if they do develop,
their strength. Widespread cloud cover and the aforementioned
precip has limited destabilization across the area. Still,
latest SPC mesoanalysis showed decent instability across far
southeast NE/southwest IA and guidance is persistent in
developing some storms in this area. In fact, the HRRR has been
consistent in showing some UH tracks with the storms it
develops indicating at least some potential for strong to
isolated severe storms. Damaging winds would likely be the
primary threat, but some hail is also possible, and even a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out given a little bit of low level
hodograph curvature and general increased ambient vorticity.
These storms should exit to the northeast by around 9 PM with
only a few spotty showers and isolated storms lingering through
midnight. Rest of the night should be fairly quiet, though a few
pieces of guidance suggest we`ll have some fog development near
and east of the Missouri River where the heaviest rain is
expected to fall. However, there should be lingering cloud cover
to keep temperatures up a bit and model soundings show we`ll
have some decent winds aloft, so currently thing it should be
pretty patchy. For what it`s worth, 18.12Z HREF gives about a
20-40% chance of dense fog.
Heading into Friday, a mid-level trough and surface low
currently over SD will develop into a cutoff low while a fairly
potent bit of shortwave energy rounds the back side and slides
through central into eastern NE and far southwest IA. This will
bring additional shower and storm chances to the area by late
Friday morning, lasting into early Saturday. Latest guidance has
also trended toward this activity stalling across southeast NE
into far southwest IA with fairly strong low level frontogenesis
in place. This could lead to training thunderstorms and some
potential locally heavy rain or even flooding. Still lots of
details to work out, but will definitely need to keep an eye on
this given trends.
Shower and storm chances will continue Saturday and Sunday as
additional shortwave energy rounds the backside of the low to
our north and another wave pushes in from the west Saturday
night. Still some questions on how quickly the low to the north
pushes off to the east which will impact our chances during the
day Saturday. Currently, consensus suggests the low pushes out
faster and precip should largely be to our east, but still a few
hints at spotty showers Saturday afternoon (10% chance). Higher
and more widespread chances (20-40%) arrive with the Saturday
night wave and linger through Sunday, especially in southwest
IA. There could also be some instability and shear to work with
for some stronger storms, but lots of details to be worked out
between now and then. Otherwise, temperatures will remain
seasonable with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
We look to stay in an active pattern next week as a fairly
potent shortwave/cutoff low dives southeast along the Rockies
and eventually pushes into KS/OK. Precip associated with this
system should arrive by Monday evening and could linger through
Wednesday/Thursday. That said, there`s still quite a bit of
spread in timing and track of the system, with various ensemble
member solutions ranging from a pretty persistent rain for the
area, to keeping most of the precip to our south, to giving us a
quick shot of rain with the low exiting quickly. As it stands,
the highest precip chances associated with this system will be
Monday evening as it first arrives (30-40%). Guidance does
suggest we`ll have a plume of lower to mid 60s dewpoints in
place ahead of its arrival, with ~2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Shear
looks like it`ll be weak, so an organized severe weather threat
looks unlikely at this point, but with the instability and
strong forcing, we`d have potential for at least some stronger
storms. For what it`s worth, various machine learning severe
weather algorithms give us a 5% chance for severe storms.
Otherwise, temperatures through the week will be seasonable to
slightly below average, with highs mostly in the 70s beyond
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions are observed for the start of this TAF cycle.
Lingering showers will come to an end this evening, leaving
scattered ceilings around 2,500 to 3,000 ft. Brief ceiling
reductions to MVFR may occur this evening into early tomorrow
morning, but highest likelihood for occurrence is at KOFK, and
have refined timing of MVFR ceilings there. Model guidance suggests
fog development at KOMA with MVFR impacts from 08 to 11z.
Another round of showers and storms is possible from 19 to 23z
at KOFK, KOMA, and KLNK, but chances are around 30% at this
time. Winds will remain light through the period from the south
southwest before switching to the northwest late tonight into
tomorrow morning.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion