Millersburg, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

045
FXUS63 KAPX 232040
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
440 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued showers and dreary weather into early Thursday
- Patchy dense fog possible again the next couple nights
- Mild weather returns for the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 439 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Convoluted pattern across the CONUS...with positively tilted
ridge axes flanking both sides of the continent...resulting in
broadly nebulous/slow-moving flow across the central US. Rex
block just off the West Coast...with high pressure largely in
control of the western US and central Canada, save for a strand
of energy resulting in a stationary boundary from the Dakotas
through Manitoba. Bubble of ridging over eastern
Manitoba/Ontario to our north resulting in troughing getting
pinched off over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Southern stream
punch of energy across the southern/central Plains where most of
the action is located today... loosely connected to
aforementioned closed low centered over the Soo...and allowing
for a subtle SW-NE oriented boundary from the Mid MS Valley up
into Quebec, stretching across Mid MI attm, just to our south.
Best moisture exists over the eastern half of the CONUS,
particularly across the Mid MS Valley with that southern punch
of energy tapping return flow off the Gulf.
Expecting the squished upper low to slowly sink southward over the
region through Wednesday...dragging a subtle trough through the
area. This will keep things on the dreary and foggy side through the
night...with continued light, nebulous flow overall. Another warm-
ish night in the 50s.
Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:
Diurnal showers to continue through this afternoon as the upper low
swings overhead, though do not expect anything nearly as
vigorous/exciting as yesterday...but certainly possible we will have
a few rumbles of thunder as the PV max rotates through this
afternoon/evening. Not impossible we end up with some shower/drizzle
activity overnight...noting some potential for low-level instability
to hang on as the upstream lobe over western Lake Superior swings
down across the region into Wednesday morning...and as the primary
PV max swirls down from the Soo area toward the Straits with time.
Continued nebulous flow overall with this moist environment suggests
we will look for another night of patchy dense fog and low stratus
across the area...though do wonder if that PV max swinging through,
combined with the signals for some low-level instability, indicates
a better threat of low stratus vs actual fog. Either way...it will
be another dreary but mild night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 439 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Days 2-3 (Wednesday-Thursday)...
PV max to drop southward across the area Wednesday...as the entire
squashed upper low slowly begins to pivot out of the region. Expect
this will lead to development of a surface low to our southeast over
the OH Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. Overall, another showery
fall day on tap for Wednesday, likely the coolest of the next few,
as the PV max pivots overhead. Think there could be an uptick in
northerly flow along the Lake Michigan coast Wednesday...and looking
at some signals for better convergence (likely lake breeze related)
across NW Lower MI Wednesday afternoon. Not a ton of signals for
convective instability overall but still think isolated/scattered
showers are on tap...followed by another foggy night Wednesday into
Thursday morning.
Some potential for us to see an inverted trough pivot through
Thursday, which if it comes to fruition, could lead to an uptick in
better convective activity across parts of the area again, at least
early in the day...though rising heights with time should lead to
some improvements overall. Potential for a col region Thursday/night
suggests we may not yet be done with the dreary/foggy nights.
Days 4-7 (Friday-Monday)...
Ridging builds in Friday, likely leading to some improvements
overall, including potential for a slightly warmer day. Another PV
max digs into Ontario/Upper Midwest going into the start of the
weekend, which could lead to some unsettled activity over the
region...though the BCZ associated with this could stall out
near/north of the region for the weekend. Beyond this...ridging
builds back into the Midwest to wrap up the weekend and go into
early next week...with signals for a cut off low to drift over the
SE US...potentially setting up a Rex Block over the eastern US for
early next week...and we could be on the warm side of this. Watching
potential for tropical disturbances to develop toward the end of the
period, and will have to keep an eye on this to see if it causes any
upstream problems in the flow over us.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Conditions look to continue to be a mixed bag of MVFR/ VFR this
afternoon before trending to IFR/ LIFR tonight as fog/ mist/
stratus are expected to redevelop. A few showers and
thunderstorms possible, but confidence remains low regarding
timing and overall coverage. Light winds continue through the
period.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...NSC

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion