Mingus, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

378
FXUS64 KFWD 171827
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
127 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue through this weekend with
  afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- Isolated (15-20% chance) showers and storms are expected this
  afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon.
- There will be a slight chance of storms on a daily basis
  beginning Thursday night and continuing through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/
Another warm day is taking shape across the region with highs in
the low to mid 90s. We`re still watching the potential for
isolated to scattered showers and storms later this afternoon. If
storms develop, the main hazards will be lightning and brief
gusty winds. Similar to the last few days, this activity should
be short-lived and a quiet night should follow with mostly clear
conditions. Tonight`s lows will range from the upper 60s to mid
70s.
The mid/upper level trough that is keeping the central/northern
plains fairly active will continue to travel eastward tomorrow
and Friday. For us, another round of isolated to scattered
convection is expected tomorrow afternoon. At the same time, a
cold front is forecast to travel east/southeast from the TX/OK
Panhandle. Some of the latest high-res guidance show the front
approaching our Red River counties Thursday night into Friday
morning which will result in slightly higher coverage of rain and
storms. Given the uncertainty of the progression of the front,
PoPs are capped at 40-50% along the Red River and 20-30% for the
rest of North Texas. It is possible that Central Texas will remain
dry with only a low chance for showers/storms Friday afternoon.
As for temperatures, Thursday will be very similar to today`s with
highs in the low to mid 90s but Friday`s highs may be a few
degrees cooler due to higher coverage of clouds and rain chances.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Weekend through next Wednesday/
Not much has changed in the long-term forecast as we continue to
highlight the low rain chances over the weekend and better
potential for rain and storms early next week. Saturday will be
mostly dry with highs in the low to mid 90s. A few showers/storms
may develop in the far eastern zones and along the Red River, but
most locations will remain dry. By Sunday, another upper level
disturbance will be moving across the central U.S. bringing
scattered rain/storms across North TX.
The pattern is forecast to become a little more active early next
week as a stronger trough moves eastward into the northern and
central plains. Most of the extended guidance develops a cutoff
low near its base which may travel closer to our region.
Additionally, we could see a cold front travel south and bring
not only storm chances but also slightly cooler temperatures early
next week. Unfortunately, is looking like this won`t be a "true
fall front" but at least we could see more seasonal temperatures
at least for a day or two before we warm up again.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
The main aviation concern for the period will be the potential
for isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon
(roughly between 21-00Z) for the North Texas sites. For Waco,
confidence in storms in the vicinity is lower, but we can`t rule
out a shower/storm or two. If a storm develops, the main hazards
will be lightning and brief gusty/erratic winds. Any activity in
the region should diminish in the evening with quiet weather
expected overnight outside of SCT-BKN high clouds. Similar
conditions are expected Thursday afternoon with isolated to
scattered rain/storms. We`re still not confident to introduce
anything yet, but it`s something to keep in mind for future
issuances. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds generally
from the SW-S-SE will continue through the period.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  74  93  71  90 /  20   5  20  30  30
Waco                93  71  92  71  91 /  20   5  20  10  20
Paris               94  69  92  68  87 /  20  10  20  40  40
Denton              95  69  93  69  90 /  20   5  20  40  30
McKinney            94  71  93  69  89 /  20   5  20  30  40
Dallas              96  75  95  73  92 /  20   5  20  30  30
Terrell             94  70  92  69  89 /  20  10  20  20  40
Corsicana           94  72  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10  30
Temple              93  69  92  69  91 /  20   5  20   5  10
Mineral Wells       94  68  93  68  92 /  10   0  20  20  30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion