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Minnesota Lake, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

679
FXUS63 KMPX 231156
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 656 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog continues this morning through 9-10am, burning off by late morning. Additional patchy dense fog is possible the next few nights.

- Quiet weather with temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s through the week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

I`d like to start this AFD off with a brief apology, as last night I had a poorly worded statement regarding the autumn equinox that made it seem like it was in October instead of yesterday. Sometimes these night shifts can make your brain say one thing while your fingers say something completely different! Regardless, now that we are post-equinox, we begin to lose daylight even more rapidly as we move through the next couple of months, but on the bright side it also means only 3 months until we start getting that daylight back....

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a developing bank of fog within portions of southeastern Minnesota, with already dense fog over central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin within proximity of Lake Superior. This is going to be a repeat occurrence over the next few nights as we will have upper level ridging and surface high pressure lingering, meaning light winds and relatively clear skies allowing radiational cooling to bring temperatures down to dew points every night. The same pattern is expected to dominate through the rest of the week as an upper level rough occludes over the Great Lakes, resulting in northerly flow aloft and weak surface winds with the precipitation shield around the low remaining over the eastern Great Lakes and eastern coast of the US. This is evident with on look through the forecast with PoP under 5% through the entirety of the next 7 days, with the longer range outlook looking just as favorable for an extension of September even as we head into October. The one potential deviation from the dry and quiet pattern would be late Friday into Saturday as a quick moving trough sweeps across northern Minnesota, with the position as of right now predicted to be too far north to give anything but the northernmost counties any sort of shower chances. Guidance is also split on just how far south it reaches, with the ECMWF the only longer-range global model that produces any measurable precipitation for the state while the GFS/CFS show a much weaker trough that stays more to the north.

Ensemble guidance shows temperatures generally remaining in the 70s with little chances for precipitation over the next couple weeks as the pattern remains unchanging. It is looking like the beginning of October will pick up right where September leaves, with continued 70s and relatively dry weather shown within the Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks with a large area of warmer than normal conditions dominating the northern US including our entire area. This warm stretch may delay peak fall colors, especially as overnight lows will also be much warmer than normal. For some context, the longer range GFS ensemble shows low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s for the first week of October, compared to a normal of 47 on October 1st down to 44 by the 8th. The coldest ensemble that reaches this period is the CMC by far, however we still remain 5-10 degrees above normal for both lows and highs during this stretch. Suffice to say, keep getting those outdoor late summer activities in while this lasts as it looks to be a great period of time to enjoy the weather before our inevitable drop towards the colder temperatures of mid to late Fall and early Winter.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

LIFR/VLIFR conditions area-wide to start this TAF set due to widespread low stratus/fog, owing to moisture being trapped under the nightly inversion with little-to-no wind to scour out the near-surface layer. As the morning progresses, insolation will burn off this low level moisture to allow VFR conditions to prevail from late morning onward. However, similar conditions are again expected tonight so have hinted as such by including degraded visibility/ceiling conditions going into the pre-dawn hours at each site.

KMSP...Have included some detail in the first few lines of this 23/12z TAF to indicate the improvement of conditions from LIFR to IFR to MVFR as the low level moisture gets scoured out. VFR conditions are expected prior to 18z, which will then prevail through this evening. Another round of IFR-or-worse conditions is expected around 12z Wednesday morning, potentially similar to what it currently ongoing. For now,

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Anoka- Benton-Blue Earth-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault- Freeborn-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Rice-Scott-Sherburne- Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan- Wright. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...JPC

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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