Minnesota Lake, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

333
FXUS63 KMPX 261914
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
214 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably mild & dry weather continues through the end of
  the September.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Another pleasant Fall day with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s,
mostly sunny skies, and no precipitation. Aloft, the current pattern
is dominated by two upstream features: the persistent troughing in
the Gulf of Alaska and a stubborn ridging across the north-central
NOAM. This has forced the jet stream & low pressures into Canada
while we`re left in weak flow aloft. I would expect this type of
pattern to persist into October given the longevity of each feature.
In plain language - we`re more likely to experience seasonably warm
& dry conditions as any low pressures track up and over the ridge.
The one notable weather feature will be a dry frontal passage
Saturday morning, that`ll bring a brief cool down to highs in the
low to mid 70s as opposed to upper 70s/lower 80s. Northwest winds
will be gusty behind the front on Saturday. Sporadic gusts up to 25
mph appear possible. Behind the front, we`ll usher in a drier air
mass with dew point temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s.
Temperatures begin to rebound on Sunday before the ridge amps up
early next week. Highs will climb into the 80s Monday & Tuesday
before another dry FROPA will cool us back into the 70s for the
second half of next week. That remains 5 to 10+ degrees above our
normal temperatures for early October. The one glimmer of hope for
precip arrives late week as a potent shortwave trough moves through
southern Canada. Guidance depicts an uptick in moisture advection
ahead of this wave that`ll allow the chance for showers &
thunderstorms along the sfc boundary Friday. The current signal is
noisy as ensemble members are spread between drier & wetter
solutions in the EPS & GEFS. There is also the potential tropical
system off the SE coast that will introduce an extra variable to the
forecast equation for mid to late week.&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Minimal changes to the TAFs with timing for the dry fropa
tonight changing little from the 12z TAFs. Only airport with
some sub-VFR concern would be EAU. The front comes through late
enough where they could get a little fog/br in the morning
before the fropa. In addition, a brief MVFR cig will be
possible out there as mixing gets going behind the front
Saturday morning. Otherwise, this is a pretty uneventful TAF
period.
KMSP...FROPA timing looks to be between 10z and 12z Saturday.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion