Monkton, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

691
FXUS61 KBTV 181732
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
132 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions will prevail today as temperatures climb
into the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area. A mostly dry
cold front will increase the clouds late today with a few
sprinkles possible across the higher terrain tonight. Clouds and
much cooler temperatures are expected on Friday morning with
increasing sunshine by Friday afternoon. Areas of frost are
likely both Saturday and Sunday mornings away from Lake
Champlain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 211 AM EDT Thursday...Mid/upper lvl trof and associated
mid lvl moisture acrs our central/eastern cwa wl depart our fa
this morning, while ribbon of very dry air develops ahead of
approaching cold frnt. This dry air wl result in mostly sunny
skies today with temps quickly warming into the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Given progged 925mb temps btwn 19-20C, would not be
surprised if a few mid 80s occur acrs the CPV and favorable
southwest downslope area. GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery
and sfc analysis indicates our cold frnt with limit moisture is
located south of Hudson Bay and north of the Great Lakes attm.
Did note a few lightning strikes, but instability is waning and
best s/w energy is weakening, so just anticipating increasing
clouds with a few sprinkles/patchy drizzle in the mtns
overnight. Soundings indicate any precip wl be post wind shift
associated with upslope flow and developing subsidence aloft
trying to squeeze out moisture btwn sfc and 3 kft. Depth of
moisture is very unimpressive, so any qpf wl be very light and
confined to the trrn. Clouds wl linger associated with northerly
flow and moderately strong llvl caa on Friday, before sharp
drying aloft should quickly dissipate clouds by late morning
northern NY and early/mid aftn most of VT. Wind profiles
suggests some mixing of winds aloft to the sfc, but overall
speeds are unimpressive, so a few localized gusts 15 to 25 mph
possible on Friday with moderate aftn humidity values. Any fire
wx concerns are marginal on Friday, given the moderate humidity
with marginal wind speeds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 211 AM EDT Thursday...Wow soundings btwn 925mb and 850mb
are very dry on Friday night into Saturday morning, which should
result in dwpts crashing, especially acrs the midslopes and
ridges. Have integrated some high res data to support this
thinking overnight into Saturday, as moderate llvl caa prevails.
Poor rh recoveries are anticipated acrs the midslopes and ridges
on Friday night/Saturday morning, with excellent recoveries in
the deeper valleys. Temps wl fall back into the mid/upper 20s
SLK/NEK valleys with mid 40s near Lake Champlain. Frost/freeze
headlines wl probably be required for parts of the cwa on Friday
night, but temps should not completely bottom out given we are
still under advection with 10 to 20 knots of wind at 500 to 1000
feet agl. A developing sharp and shallow inversion should allow
deeper valleys to decouple aft midnight, resulting in cooler
temps. Saturday wl feature very dry conditions with critical
humidity values expected in many areas, but winds decrease with
building high pres. Expecting min rh values in the 20% to 30%
range, but light north winds at 5 to 10 mph with a few gusts 10
to 15 mph possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 137 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure will begin to break
down and push eastward by the end of the weekend. Temperatures
Saturday night will remain on the cold side in the higher
terrain and usual cooler hollows. Clearing skies should see
better radiative cooling Saturday night which will lead to the
potential for frost formation and potentially a hard freeze in
select areas of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Winds
will shift to the south for Sunday leading to a warming trend
back towards seasonable levels for the start of next week.
Highs should return towards the upper 70s with lows returning to
the upper 40s to mid 50s by early next week. Models continue to
show our next potential system developing across the northern
Plains and Great Lakes by Monday. An upper shortwave riding over
the top of the shifting high could bring some energy through
the area Monday night into Tuesday with increasing chances for
some showers. However, probabilities of 24-hr rainfall exceeding
0.25 inches remain only 20-30%. Model timing and low placement
spread remain high with the European model solutions showing a
wetter short term pattern for next week. This forecasters
opinion is to lean more on the drier side given the recent
drought conditions that are persisting. Additionally the drier
GFS ensemble solutions resolve a closed cut off low across the
Great Lakes with a blocking high to the north which would limit
the propagation of any moisture chances into the region. These
blocking patterns are more common than an eastward moving cut
off low persisting. Therefore, the GFS ensembles should hold
more weight from a climatology standpoint. We will continue to
monitor trends, however, there does not seem to be any long term
drought relief at least through mid week next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the day today at all
terminals, with winds gusting into the teens at MSS. A weak
front comes through tonight, dropping ceilings into MVFR
territory starting around 03z. Light showers are possible as the
front passes over, with EFK looking to have the highest
chances. Either way, showers will be light and impacts will be
limited. The low clouds overnight combined with stronger flow
just off the deck will limit any fog development overnight.
Clouds will begin to move out around 15z tomorrow, leaving VFR
conditions for most of the day. &&
.MARINE...
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy frost.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Considering our period of very prolonged dryness, there will be
some very marginal fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday.
First, breezy northerly winds behind Thursday night`s mostly dry
cold front Friday will be gusting 15-20mph in general with
around 25mph near Lake Champlain and along exposed mid/upper
slopes. Minimum RH will generally range 30-40% with temperatures
running cooler than seasonal average. Poor humidity recoveries
anticipated on Friday night across the midslopes and ridges. Very
dry conditions (min RH widespread 20-35%) develop for Saturday
while high pressure builds overhead; winds will drop
substantially becoming light. Fortunately, winds and driest
conditions do not phase while the vast majority of leaves remain
on trees. Still, given recent drought conditions, it will be
prudent to limit any chances of sparks to avoid accidental fire
starts.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Langbauer
FIRE WEATHER...Team BTV

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion