Moses, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

510
FXUS65 KABQ 240818
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
218 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 206 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Much cooler temperatures will impact central and eastern New
  Mexico today with readings 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
- Forecast confidence remains moderate that a Pacific system will
  approach from the west at the end of the work week, bringing
  improved chances for showers and storms to western New Mexico
  Thursday and Friday. A large portion of central and eastern New
  Mexico may see increasing storm coverage Saturday and Sunday.
  This scenario would lead to an increasing risk for burn scar
  flash flooding going into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Widespread clouds are forming over eastern NM in the wake of a
backdoor cold front early this morning. Latest obs and model trends
suggest low clouds will not be as widespread as previously expected.
The higher probabilities for low stratus decks below 3kft will be
south of I-40 within eastern NM, especially from Ruidoso to Roswell.
The frontal orientation was more northeast-southwest as it pressed
along the central mt chain so canyon winds on the east side of the
ABQ metro may also be a tad lighter than expected. Nonetheless, east
winds of 15-25 mph are still likely thru mid morning before tapering
off thereafter. The stronger winds will remain in the area between
Abo Pass and White Sands Missile Range. The 00Z HREF ensemble mean
gust are in the 30-40mph range in that area for a few hours this
morning. Besides the wind and clouds this morning, tranquil weather
conditions are in store today with highs 5 to 10F below normal for
central and eastern NM. A few slow-moving showers and storms may pop
up over Catron County but NBM PoPs are only 20 to 30%. Clear skies,
light winds, and drier air over the vast majority of the region
tonight will make way for chilly low temps. This will be especially
true for northern and western valleys where readings fall into
the 30s.
Thursday will be absolutely gorgeous for northern, central, and
eastern NM as an upper level ridge builds over NM. Max temps will
trend 5-10F warmer with sunny skies, light winds, and low humidity.
The exception will be southwest NM where deeper moisture spreads
into the area ahead of a 579dm H5 low drifting east north of Los
Angeles. PWATs increase to near 1" with greater instability, steep
lapse rates, and improving shear. WPC is highlighting a `Slight
Risk` area for excessive rainfall for points south of Gallup into
the Gila region. Confidence on storm intensity and coverage is low
to moderate given the potential for the upper low to slow down while
a blocking upper high develops over the southern Rockies. Low level
moisture will still begin trickling into more of western NM thru
Thursday night with warmer min temps areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Forecast confidence on storm coverage remains only moderate Friday
as concerns with the progress of deeper moisture and instability are
still at play. Various ensemble guidance is actually in excellent
agreement with the upper low becoming stationary near the Salton Sea
while the upper level ridge over the southern Rockies becomes more
nebulous. Forcing aloft should begin improving over at least western
NM as a 60kt subtropical jet approaches from the southwest. WPC is
showing the `Slight Risk` area still confined to west-central and
southwest NM Friday. It is not until Saturday that the upper low
begins to open up and eject northeastward toward the Great Basin.
Abundant moisture pooling over the eastern tropical Pacific may be
drawn northward into NM Saturday thru Monday. However, there may
also be a large mid level dry intrusion off the CA coastline that
gets wrapped around the upper low. Suffice it to say, there is still
a lot of uncertainty so confidence remains low to moderate on storm
chances and QPF distribution across the region during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 206 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The probability for widespread MVFR cigs in the wake of the cold
front early this morning has decreased. While mid level cigs are
still likely across eastern NM, the higher chances for MVFR cigs
will be from near Clines Corners to Ft Sumner, Clovis, Ruidoso,
and Roswell. Probabilities have dropped into the 10-30% range for
cigs 

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion