Mountain Park, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

642
FXUS64 KEPZ 061146
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
546 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Shower and thunderstorm coverage becomes more widespread
  Saturday with heavy rainfall and flash flooding the main
  concerns, especially in area mountains
- Cooler temperatures continue again Saturday with the lingering
  showers and cloud cover. Warming quickly early in the week.
- Drier and warm conditions prevail Monday through midweek
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
We remain in a rather moist pattern thanks in part to what`s left
of Lorena`s mid and upper-level moisture. A weak s/w trough axis
is crossing NM which is responsible for a line of showers over the
northern half of the CWA. High moisture content and continued
subtle forcing will keep low rain/storm chances going through the
night though most locations are expected to stay dry.
As we go into Saturday afternoon, a more notable s/w trough, now
over NV, will shift into CO with its trough axis extending
southward into NM. This feature will be responsible for triggering
and organizing at least one round of showers and thunderstorms.
Convection will form in the Gila (as well as the Sacramento
Mountains) before shifting southeast into the lowlands, possibly
affecting Las Cruces and El Paso. HRRR also indicates a second
round of convection developing behind it though I`m skeptical of
this solution. With PWAT values still over 1.25", heavy rainfall
and flash flooding would be the main concern.
Isolated showers/low rain chances will continue through the night
Saturday into the morning Sunday, but by noon the trough axis
will be well east of the area. Sunday should be a much quieter day
and the start of a dry spell as upper level ridging builds across
the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will climb as a result with
thunderstorm chances mainly limited to the mountains. MEX guidance
has 99 for a high at El Paso on Tuesday though the NBM is a
couple degrees cooler. Moisture will remain trapped under the
ridge with enough around to give our mountains a low chance for
storms.
The UL ridge begins to shift east starting mid-week ahead of a
stout UL trough. This will force the moisture circulating around
the high east into New Mexico, reintroducing storm chances to the
picture.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Mostly clear skies across the area to begin the period with
lingering shower activity south of KELP. FEW-SCT040 have developed
early this morning, mainly E of RGV, but should mix out after
sunrise. Dry conditions this morning will give way to scattered TS
development during the afternoon, primarily over northern areas.
KTCS is most likely to see direct impacts from TS later today with
lower chances towards KELP. Storms may bring gusty outflows and
heavy rain into the evening as we`ll be monitoring radar trends
for possible amendments. The activity lingers through the evening
before dissipating overnight as the storms track to the southeast.
Outside of outflows, prevailing winds will be AOB 8kts mostly from
the S-SW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 528 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period.
Today will see mostly clear skies for the morning before scattered
storms develop this afternoon, favoring northern areas. Moisture
levels remain well above normal, so any storm will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding as they progress to
the southeast. Winds will be light today outside of gusty outflows,
shifting S-SW for the afternoon. Storm chances decrease on
Sunday, favoring eastern areas, as drier air begins to move in
from the west. Mainly dry conditions expected thereafter.
Overnight recoveries will be very good to excellent through the
early week. Temperatures will be cool today, then rebounding to
slightly above normal by midweek.
Min RHs will be 35-55% today, then falling to 15-30% by Tue;
50-80% in the Sacs today, then 30-55%. Vent rates range from poor
to fair through Sun, then improving to fair to very good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  86  68  91  71 /  40  30  10   0
Sierra Blanca            80  59  85  61 /  70  30  20  10
Las Cruces               83  62  88  66 /  50  40  10   0
Alamogordo               82  62  88  66 /  60  40  10   0
Cloudcroft               59  45  65  48 /  70  40  30  10
Truth or Consequences    82  62  87  66 /  60  30   0   0
Silver City              77  57  83  60 /  70  30  10   0
Deming                   86  63  91  66 /  50  30   0   0
Lordsburg                84  63  88  65 /  50  20  10   0
West El Paso Metro       84  67  88  71 /  40  30  10   0
Dell City                82  62  88  63 /  50  20  10   0
Fort Hancock             85  66  91  68 /  60  30  20  10
Loma Linda               77  60  82  63 /  50  30  10   0
Fabens                   84  65  89  67 /  40  30  10   0
Santa Teresa             83  64  88  67 /  40  30   0   0
White Sands HQ           84  64  88  68 /  50  40  10  10
Jornada Range            82  62  87  66 /  50  40  10   0
Hatch                    86  62  91  66 /  60  40  10   0
Columbus                 85  64  90  67 /  40  30   0   0
Orogrande                81  61  86  63 /  50  40  10   0
Mayhill                  69  51  76  53 /  70  30  30   0
Mescalero                72  50  78  53 /  70  40  30  10
Timberon                 68  49  73  51 /  70  30  30  10
Winston                  75  50  81  54 /  70  40  10   0
Hillsboro                83  58  88  62 /  70  40  10   0
Spaceport                82  59  87  63 /  60  40  10   0
Lake Roberts             78  51  83  55 /  80  40  20   0
Hurley                   80  58  85  61 /  60  30  10   0
Cliff                    85  60  89  62 /  60  30  10   0
Mule Creek               81  57  86  60 /  60  20  10   0
Faywood                  80  58  85  62 /  60  30  10   0
Animas                   84  63  88  64 /  50  20  10   0
Hachita                  82  61  88  63 /  50  20  10   0
Antelope Wells           81  61  86  63 /  60  20  10   0
Cloverdale               77  59  82  61 /  60  20  10   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for East
     Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion