Mountain Springs, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

849
FXUS65 KVEF 280817
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
117 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue today
  for southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern
  Arizona.
* A low pressure system will bring breezy winds and drier air to
  the region as it approaches the region on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through next Saturday.
Current radar and satellite imagery shows isolated showers and
thunderstorms circulating around a low in northwestern Arizona,
southern Nevada, and southeastern California. These storms will
continue to circulate around the low through the early morning
hours, but will be less intense than storms that occurred on
Saturday afternoon. As this low slowly pushes east throughout the
day it will continue to help fuel isolated showers and
thunderstorms across southern Nevada, southeastern California,
and northwestern Arizona this afternoon. Hazards will be similar
to the past few days, with moderate-to-heavy rain, flash flooding,
strong outflow winds, small hail, and frequent lightning will be
hazards with any storms that develop. Storms will tend to favor
areas of higher terrain for development and will dissipate with
the loss of daytime heating after sunset.
An uppper-level trough approaching the West Coast will help the low
responsible for this weekend`s unsettled weather clear out of the
region on Monday. This trough will also bring breezy winds to the
area as well as drier southwesterly flow aloft, which will help
to slowly scour moisture from the area early next week.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the week as
troughiness persists across the Western US. Meanwhile, Tropical
Storm Narda will continue to slowly meander north, weakening as
she moves into cooler waters. Eventually, we will see moisture
from the remnants of Narda get advected into southern California
with some portions of our forecast area seeing a relative increase
in moisture during the latter half of the week. This relative
increase in moisture looks to be short-lived as another system
looks to flush the moisture out as it rolls through the area.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Primary concerns this forecast period are potential
rounds of showers and thunderstorms that could impact the
terminal. Late tonight through Sunday morning, showers are
expected to develop and move over the Las Vegas Valley, though
impacts from these will be minimal. Of greater concern is another
round of thunderstorms expected to develop across the area during
the afternoon, continuing into early evening. Erratic gusty
outflow winds, heavy rain leading to MVFR/IFR conditions, and
frequent lightning are expected, though confidence is low for
storms to develop over the terminal. However, confidence is
moderate in storms developing over the surrounding mountains,
sending outflow winds into the Valley. These storms will diminish
around sunset, with winds outside of storms remaining around 8KT
or less, settling out of the east to southeast late morning
through early evening, and VFR conditions prevailing with ceilings
around 10-12kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Lingering showers are
expected across northwestern Arizona and southern Nevada through
Sunday morning, with another round of widely scattered
thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon into early evening.
Confidence is greatest for storms to develop over southern Nevada
and northwestern Arizona, as well as across the higher terrain of
southeastern California and the southern Great Basin. Erratic
gusty outflow winds, MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain, and
frequent lightning will accompany storms that develop, with storms
expected to diminish after sunset. Outside of storms, winds will
generally remain under 10KT and follow diurnal patterns, with
gusty up-valley winds expected in the Owens Valley late afternoon
through late evening. VFR conditions otherwise prevail, with
ceilings around 10-12kft.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Phillipson
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion