Murdo, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

685
FXUS63 KABR 222338
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
638 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is an isolated chance (15-20%) for showers and thunderstorms
over portions of south central SD through this evening, mainly along
and south of I90. Severe weather is not expected.
- Periods of smoke aloft return this evening through Tuesday for
locations west of the James River. Near surface smoke is not
anticipated at this time.
- An extended period of dry and mild conditions look to set in
across the region into the upcoming weekend, with high temperatures
about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The ongoing forecast remains on track, with no significant
adjustments expected this evening. We`ll continue to monitor our
southwestern counties for potential showers or even a couple of
thunderstorms this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
As of 230pm the majority of the CWA is clear and quiet with a few
clouds/light rain showers over the southern portions of Jones
County, being near the surface low and boundary. It is a beautiful
first day of Fall with temperatures across the forecast region
ranging in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s. HRRR model does
indicate periods of smoke aloft plunging southward and over
locations mainly west of the James River late this evening and
continuing through Tuesday night. This looks to possibly drift
eastward over eastern SD/western MN by Wednesday morning. Near
surface smoke at this time is not anticipated. Otherwise, weak mid
level energy will hover over southwestern SD/northwestern NE border
through this evening, which is to the east of a larger trough
hovering over the northern Rockies. This main trough will continue
to track southeast and over WY this evening (as a closed low forms)
and tracking over northwestern CO by Tuesday morning. Its surface
low will also track southeast through NE tonight. This setup will
produce showers and thunderstorms which looks to stay mainly south
of the CWA with both the HREF and the majority of the CAMs
indicating this. At most, far western/southwestern Jones and
southern Lyman counties could additionally be clipped by this
moisture potential, being closer to the west to east frontal
boundary. NBM does highlight this indicating pops of 15-20% through
early this evening over these counties. This area looks to stay
north of the higher instability, which remains closer to the low and
front, but still could see values up to around 1500j/kg this evening
with lack of any shear. So any precip that could fall could be
accompanied by a weak thunderstorm.
For Tuesday this now more positive tilted trough will continue to
track east/southeast over the central CONUS through Tuesday evening
as split flow continues with a ridge over the western CONUS and its
high underneath. The next few days the Northern Plains will lie
under this ridge with no impactful weather expected and overall dry
conditions. This ridge flattens by Friday with more of a zonal flow
pattern over the CWA with an embedded shortwave passing over
Canada. A surface dry cold front will swing southeast from its low
through the CWA Friday evening/early Saturday AM which will bring a
wind shift and bring in a little cooler air. Otherwise, the ridge
amplifies with much of the Rockies/Central CONUS underneath this
ridge for the weekend into early next week with Clusters differences
in where the axis of the ridge sets up.
850mb temps will run about 1 standard deviation above climo through
early next week. Temps will warm to around +14C Tuesday afternoon
with warmer air filtering in from the west and extending eastward
across the CWA through the end of the week. 850mb temps by Friday
are forecasted to range from +18 to +21C, highest over south central
SD. Surface highs will run about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
through the weekend, ranging in the 70s and warming into the upper
70s to lower 80s Thursday across the CWA and even up to the mid 80s
over south central SD Friday! (NBM probability of maxT>80 is 80-90%
here). As mentioned the fropa passage will cool down temps about 5-8
degrees for any location Saturday, back in the 70s, with temps
continuing into the 70s to around 80 Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...MMM
AVIATION...06

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion