Mustoe, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

127
FXUS61 KLWX 171929
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
329 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure initially located over the Virginia
Tidewater will weaken as it moves offshore tonight. Thereafter,
high pressure will build in and remain in control through early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure is centered over the Tidewater of Virginia this
afternoon. An expansive area of cloud cover surrounds this low,
extending northward to PA/NJ and westward to the crest of the
Appalachians. The forecast area remains entrenched beneath this
area of low clouds this afternoon. Showers also extend across
much of northern Maryland, the West Virginia Panhandle, and
northern Shenandoah Valley. Elsewhere, low clouds and drizzle
are common. Winds are out of the north to northeast and are
occasionally gusting to around 20 mph. Similar conditions will
persist through the remainder of the day. With the low clouds,
showers, and drizzle in place, temperatures have held in the
60s.
The aforementioned area of low pressure will weaken and track
offshore tonight. This will bring the showers to an end, but low
clouds and drizzle will continue through much of the night. The
clouds and drizzle may begin to break up late tonight to the
west of the Blue Ridge, and potentially in Central Virginia as
well. If this occurs, the combination of clearing skies, calm
winds, and ample low-level moisture will likely lead to the
development of fog. Some of this fog could potentially be dense
in nature. Low temperatures overnight will be in the mid-upper
50s to the west of the Blue Ridge and across Central Virginia,
and lower to middle 60s further east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave troughing will lift off to our north and east through
the day tomorrow as upper ridging builds over the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes. Any residual low clouds or fog should break
up by around mid-late morning, leading to mostly sunny skies
during the afternoon. Winds will be light out of the northwest
and temperatures are forecast to reach into the low to mid 80s.
Dry conditions will continue on Friday as upper ridging builds
in from the west. Winds will remain light out of the northwest,
and temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer, with highs in
the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Primarily dry conditions are expected throughout the weekend as
surface high pressure remains centered over New England. A warm
front lifting north will bring low end precipitation chances(20% or
less) to the southwestern portions of the forecast area Sunday
afternoon with the rest of the area staying dry both days. High
temperatures each day will be in the 70s to low 80s for most with
higher elevations staying in the 60s. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the 50s to 60s across the area.
Temperatures gradually warm Monday and Tuesday as high pressure
shifts offshore and flow shifts southerly. Dry conditions continue
Monday before a nearby front brings increased precipitation chances
to the western portions of the area Tuesday afternoon. High
temperatures warm to the low 80s for most with higher elevations
staying in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR to MVFR ceilings with mist and/or showers are expected
through the remainder of the afternoon. IFR ceilings will
persist through much of the night. Clouds may begin to break up
later tonight, especially for MRB and CHO. Where breaks in the
clouds occur, fog is likely to develop. Some of the fog could be
locally dense. Low ceilings and fog will break up by around
mid-morning tomorrow, leading to a return to VFR conditions. VFR
conditions will continue through Friday night.
Winds will be out of the north to northeast this afternoon, and
may gust to around 15-20 knots at times. Light northwesterly
flow is expected on both Thursday and Friday.
East winds on Saturday shift to southeast on Sunday. VFR conditions
are expected both days over the weekend with winds gusting around 10
knots each afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue this afternoon across northern portions
of the Bay within northeasterly flow. Winds have decreased
below SCA levels elsewhere. Winds will drop back below SCA
levels for all waters tonight. Sub-SCA level winds are expected
in north to northwesterly flow tomorrow, and then light and
variable flow on Friday. Winds may near low-end SCA levels in
channeled northerly flow late Friday night.
Small Craft Advisories are possible on Saturday as east winds gust
near criteria. Winds shift to southeast and diminish Sunday with no
marine hazards expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
An area of low pressure located over the Virginia Tidewater will
weaken as it tracks offshore tonight. Anomalies remain elevated,
and more sensitive locations may approach Minor Flood stage with
the tide cycle tonight. Anomalies are expected to decrease
thereafter as winds turn out of the north to northwest.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>533-538>541.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KJP
MARINE...AVS/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJP

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion