Nalcrest, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

481
FXUS62 KTBW 081826
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
226 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A broad area of low pressure is sitting about 80 to 100 miles off
the west coast of Florida. This along with a stalled boundary in
North Florida is bringing us a cloudy and muggy day. Along the coast
we could see on and off showers through the overnight hours as bands
of rains push in. Inland and SW Florida has seen more sunshine and
should see a more typical afternoon and evening thunderstorm
activity.
We will see much of the same on Tuesday as overcast skies and on and
off rain will persist across the West Coast of Florida. SW
Florida and inland areas will once again see more sunshine and
scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Models
show the low pressure dissipating by Wednesday however the
stalled boundary will still remain in North Florida keeping our
moisture and thunderstorm chances high. By Thursday an upper level
trough will help to push the front through the area. This will
keep storms chances high for one more day.
By Friday and through the weekend we will be on the back side of a
deep upper level trough. This is going to bring some unseasonable
dry air mass across the area. This will allow for a dry few days for
almost all of us. Also the clear skies and dry air at night COULD
bring some locations down into the upper 60`s for the first time
since late spring.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A broad upper level low will continue to bring coastal TAF sites
on and off rain through the next 24 hours with brief MVFR CIGS.
Some isolated storms will also be possible for the afternoon and
evening hours. Inland area and SW Florida is seeing more sunshine
and will have a more typical weather pattern with scattered
showers and storms with afternoon and evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A broad area of low pressure about 80 to 100 miles off the
West Coast of Florida will continue to bring widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms to the Gulf today and tomorrow. Winds will
remain out of the east around 10 to 15 knots through Tuesday.
However our northern waters will see some higher winds both nights
with Exercise Caution possible. The low pressure is expected to
dissipate by Wednesday however a stalled out boundary to our
north will keep higher then average shower chances through
Thursday. By Friday the front will have moved to our south with
drier air in place and winds out of the north and northeast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A broad upper level low will keep humidity high along with rain
showers through much of our week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  87  76  88 /  60  80  60  80
FMY  76  88  76  89 /  50  80  60  80
GIF  74  89  74  89 /  60  80  50  90
SRQ  75  87  75  88 /  50  80  70  80
BKV  72  87  71  87 /  60  90  60  80
SPG  77  87  76  86 /  60  80  70  80
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion